RF · NYY
Aaron Judge — Home Runs
2026 home runs — game-by-game log, hit rates at common lines, recent form, and our matchup-adjusted projection.
Aaron Judge (NYY) has averaged 0.29 home runs per game across 59 games this season, with the last 10 dipping to 0.1. The over on 0.5 has hit in 27% of games. We project 0.28, short of the 1.08 market line.
Next: vs CLE — their staff ranks 7 of 30 in runs allowed (1 = stingiest), a tough matchup for hitters.
At a line of 0.5 (betonlineag), Aaron Judge went over in 16 of 59 2026 games.
Our projection 0.28 vs market line 1.08 — edge -0.8.
Hit rate at common lines
| Over | Cleared | Rate |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 16/59 | 27% |
Share of 2026 games Judge finished above each line.
Recent form
Over 0.5 in 1 of the last 10 games.
Home / away splits
Per-game home runs at home vs. on the road this season — ballpark and travel effects show up here.
Projection is our own model — adjusted for the next opponent’s pitching and ballpark.
2026 Game-by-Game — Home Runs
| Date | Opp | Home Runs | vs Line |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-26 | vs SF | 0 | Under |
| 2026-03-27 | vs SF | 1 | Over |
| 2026-03-28 | vs SF | 1 | Over |
| 2026-03-31 | vs SEA | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-01 | vs SEA | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-01 | vs SEA | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-03 | vs MIA | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-04 | vs MIA | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-05 | vs MIA | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-07 | vs ATH | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-08 | vs ATH | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-09 | vs ATH | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-10 | vs TB | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-11 | vs TB | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-12 | vs TB | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-13 | vs LAA | 2 | Over |
| 2026-04-14 | vs LAA | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-15 | vs LAA | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-16 | vs LAA | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-17 | vs KC | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-18 | vs KC | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-19 | vs KC | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-21 | vs BOS | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-22 | vs BOS | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-23 | vs BOS | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-25 | vs HOU | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-25 | vs HOU | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-26 | vs HOU | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-28 | vs TEX | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-29 | vs TEX | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-29 | vs TEX | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-01 | vs BAL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-02 | vs BAL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-03 | vs BAL | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-04 | vs BAL | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-05 | vs TEX | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-06 | vs TEX | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-07 | vs TEX | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-08 | vs MIL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-09 | vs MIL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-10 | vs MIL | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-11 | vs BAL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-12 | vs BAL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-13 | vs BAL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-15 | vs NYM | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-16 | vs NYM | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-17 | vs NYM | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-18 | vs TOR | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-19 | vs TOR | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-20 | vs TOR | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-21 | vs TOR | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-22 | vs TB | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-24 | vs TB | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-25 | vs KC | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-26 | vs KC | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-27 | vs KC | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-30 | vs ATH | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-31 | vs ATH | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-31 | vs ATH | 0 | Under |
Stats: MLB Stats API. Lines via The Odds API when available. See Aaron Judge’s full profile and methodology.
MLB data last updated . Stats refresh each morning; odds and projections refresh through the day.