MLB
Best Prop Edges
Player props ranked by expected value — our model's win probability against the best available price across regulated books, grouped by the day each player's team plays. Analysis, not advice: where the price and our number disagree most.
Today · Thu, Jul 2332 edges
| Player | Time (ET) | Prop | Pick | Best odds | Book | Win% | Proj | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr.TOR | 3:07 PM | Total Bases | Under 1.5 | -125 | Fanatics | 61% | 1.32 vs 1.5 | +10.6% |
| Ryan WaldschmidtAZ | 5:15 PM | Hits | Over 0.5 | +120 | BetMGM | 50% | 0.77 vs 0.5 | +9.6% |
| Angel MartínezCLE | 1:10 PM | Hits | Under 0.5 | +180 | BetMGM | 39% | 0.82 vs 0.5 | +9.1% |
| Austin SlaterTB | 3:07 PM | Hits | Over 0.5 | -114 | DraftKings | 58% | 1 vs 0.5 | +8.9% |
| Yandy DíazTB | 3:07 PM | Hits | Over 1.5 | +200 | BetRivers | 36% | 1.4 vs 1.5 | +8.9% |
| Drake BaldwinATL | 12:15 PM | Hits | Under 0.5 | +200 | DraftKings | 36% | 0.91 vs 0.5 | +8.7% |
| Ryan WaldschmidtAZ | 5:15 PM | Total Bases | Over 0.5 | +120 | BetMGM | 49% | 1.15 vs 0.5 | +8.5% |
| Alejandro KirkTOR | 3:07 PM | Hits | Under 0.5 | +160 | BetMGM | 41% | 0.78 vs 0.5 | +7.6% |
| Luis CampusanoSD | 12:15 PM | Hits | Over 0.5 | -129 | BetRivers | 61% | 1.04 vs 0.5 | +7.5% |
| Fernando Tatis Jr.SD | 12:15 PM | Hits | Over 1.5 | +182 | DraftKings | 38% | 1.45 vs 1.5 | +7.3% |
| Will WagnerSD | 12:15 PM | Hits | Over 0.5 | -101 | DraftKings | 54% | 0.92 vs 0.5 | +7.1% |
| Hunter FeducciaTB | 3:07 PM | Hits | Over 0.5 | +111 | DraftKings | 51% | 0.78 vs 0.5 | +7% |
| Kahlil WatsonCLE | 1:10 PM | Stolen Bases | Under 0.5 | -350 | BetMGM | 83% | 0.11 vs 0.5 | +6.8% |
| Steven KwanCLE | 1:10 PM | Total Bases | Under 0.5 | +130 | BetMGM | 46% | 0.98 vs 0.5 | +6.3% |
| Travis BazzanaCLE | 1:10 PM | Stolen Bases | Under 0.5 | -393 | DraftKings | 85% | 0.08 vs 0.5 | +6.2% |
| Austin RileyATL | 12:15 PM | Hits | Under 0.5 | +152 | DraftKings | 42% | 0.76 vs 0.5 | +6.2% |
| Dominic SmithATL | 12:15 PM | Total Bases | Under 0.5 | +150 | BetMGM | 42% | 1.18 vs 0.5 | +6.1% |
| Alex JacksonMIN | 1:10 PM | Hits | Over 0.5 | -120 | DraftKings | 58% | 1.04 vs 0.5 | +6% |
| Ronald Acuña Jr.ATL | 12:15 PM | Total Bases | Under 1.5 | -110 | BetMGM | 56% | 1.75 vs 1.5 | +6% |
| David FryCLE | 1:10 PM | Hits | Under 0.5 | +125 | BetMGM | 47% | 0.68 vs 0.5 | +5.9% |
| Manny MachadoSD | 12:15 PM | Total Bases | Over 1.5 | +144 | DraftKings | 43% | 2.18 vs 1.5 | +5.8% |
| Ildemaro VargasAZ | 5:15 PM | Hits | Under 0.5 | +132 | DraftKings | 46% | 0.73 vs 0.5 | +5.6% |
| José RamírezCLE | 1:10 PM | Hits | Under 0.5 | +190 | BetMGM | 36% | 0.95 vs 0.5 | +4.5% |
| Josh RojasKC | 6:40 PM | Hits | Under 0.5 | +131 | DraftKings | 45% | 0.71 vs 0.5 | +4.5% |
| Ildemaro VargasAZ | 5:15 PM | Total Bases | Under 0.5 | +123 | Caesars | 46% | 1.06 vs 0.5 | +3.6% |
| Bobby Witt Jr.KC | 6:40 PM | Total Bases | Under 1.5 | -102 | DraftKings | 52% | 2 vs 1.5 | +3.6% |
| Austin RileyATL | 12:15 PM | Total Bases | Under 1.5 | -176 | Caesars | 66% | 1.17 vs 1.5 | +3.6% |
| Blaze JordanSTL | 5:15 PM | Hits | Under 0.5 | +125 | BetMGM | 46% | 0.72 vs 0.5 | +3.5% |
| Daniel SchneemannCLE | 1:10 PM | Hits | Under 0.5 | +115 | BetMGM | 48% | 0.67 vs 0.5 | +3.4% |
| Steven KwanCLE | 1:10 PM | Hits | Under 0.5 | +130 | BetMGM | 45% | 0.74 vs 0.5 | +3.2% |
| Thomas SaggeseSTL | 5:15 PM | Hits | Under 0.5 | +120 | DraftKings | 47% | 0.68 vs 0.5 | +3.1% |
| George SpringerTOR | 3:07 PM | Hits | Under 0.5 | +165 | BetMGM | 39% | 0.88 vs 0.5 | +3% |
Grouped by the day each player’s team plays; game times are US Eastern. We only list bets clearing a +3% expected-value bar; our backtest showed thinner edges are roughly break-even. Win% is our projection turned into a probability; EV compares it to the best price across regulated US sportsbooks (DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, BetRivers, and other licensed books). Positive EV means the price beats our estimate of fair. Odds move fast and books differ — always confirm the number before betting. Informational only, not betting advice — see methodology, expected value, and responsible gambling.
MLB data last updated . Stats refresh each morning; odds and projections refresh through the day.