1B · MIL
Andrew Vaughn — Runs
2026 runs — game-by-game log, hit rates at common lines, recent form, and our matchup-adjusted projection.
Andrew Vaughn (MIL) sits at 0.48 runs per game through 21 games, and the last 10 hold near that at 0.5. That 0.5 line has been cleared in 38% of games this season. Our model projects 0.52, a step above the market line of 0.5.
Next: vs SF — their staff ranks 24 of 30 in runs allowed (1 = stingiest), a favorable matchup for hitters.
At a line of 0.5 (draftkings), Andrew Vaughn went over in 8 of 21 2026 games.
Our projection 0.52 vs market line 0.5 — edge +0.02.
Hit rate at common lines
| Over | Cleared | Rate |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 8/21 | 38% |
| 1.5 | 2/21 | 10% |
Share of 2026 games Vaughn finished above each line.
Recent form
Over 0.5 in 4 of the last 10 games.
Home / away splits
Per-game runs at home vs. on the road this season — ballpark and travel effects show up here.
Projection is our own model — adjusted for the next opponent’s pitching and ballpark.
2026 Game-by-Game — Runs
| Date | Opp | Runs | vs Line |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-26 | vs CWS | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-04 | vs STL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-06 | vs STL | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-08 | vs NYY | 2 | Over |
| 2026-05-09 | vs NYY | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-10 | vs NYY | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-13 | vs SD | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-14 | vs SD | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-15 | vs MIN | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-16 | vs MIN | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-17 | vs MIN | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-18 | vs CHC | 2 | Over |
| 2026-05-22 | vs LAD | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-23 | vs LAD | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-24 | vs LAD | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-25 | vs STL | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-27 | vs STL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-30 | vs HOU | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-30 | vs HOU | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-31 | vs HOU | 1 | Over |
| 2026-06-01 | vs SF | 0 | Under |
Stats: MLB Stats API. Lines via The Odds API when available. See Andrew Vaughn’s full profile and methodology.
MLB data last updated . Stats refresh each morning; odds and projections refresh through the day.