3B · ATL
Austin Riley — Total Bases
2026 total bases — game-by-game log, hit rates at common lines, recent form, and our matchup-adjusted projection.
Austin Riley (ATL) sits at 1.31 total bases per game through 61 games, though the last 10 have cooled to 0.8. 34% of those games have finished over 1.5. Our model projects 1.32, below the market line of 1.61.
Next: vs TOR — their staff ranks 10 of 30 in runs allowed (1 = stingiest), a tough matchup for hitters.
Under 1.5 -190 at Caesars — model 64% to hit, -2.3% EV.
At a line of 1.5 (williamhill_us), Austin Riley went over in 21 of 61 2026 games.
Our projection 1.32 vs market line 1.61 — edge -0.29.
Hit rate at common lines
| Over | Cleared | Rate |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 30/61 | 49% |
| 1.5 | 21/61 | 34% |
| 2.5 | 12/61 | 20% |
| 3.5 | 7/61 | 11% |
Share of 2026 games Riley finished above each line.
Recent form
Over 1.5 in 3 of the last 10 games.
Home / away splits
Per-game total bases at home vs. on the road this season — ballpark and travel effects show up here.
Projection is our own model — adjusted for the next opponent’s pitching and ballpark.
2026 Game-by-Game — Total Bases
| Date | Opp | Total Bases | vs Line |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-27 | vs KC | 3 | Over |
| 2026-03-28 | vs KC | 1 | Under |
| 2026-03-29 | vs KC | 0 | Under |
| 2026-03-30 | vs ATH | 0 | Under |
| 2026-03-31 | vs ATH | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-01 | vs ATH | 1 | Under |
| 2026-04-03 | vs AZ | 2 | Over |
| 2026-04-04 | vs AZ | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-04 | vs AZ | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-05 | vs AZ | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-07 | vs LAA | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-08 | vs LAA | 2 | Over |
| 2026-04-08 | vs LAA | 2 | Over |
| 2026-04-10 | vs CLE | 2 | Over |
| 2026-04-11 | vs CLE | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-12 | vs CLE | 3 | Over |
| 2026-04-13 | vs MIA | 1 | Under |
| 2026-04-14 | vs MIA | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-15 | vs MIA | 6 | Over |
| 2026-04-17 | vs PHI | 8 | Over |
| 2026-04-18 | vs PHI | 2 | Over |
| 2026-04-19 | vs PHI | 1 | Under |
| 2026-04-20 | vs WSH | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-21 | vs WSH | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-22 | vs WSH | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-23 | vs WSH | 2 | Over |
| 2026-04-24 | vs PHI | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-25 | vs PHI | 2 | Over |
| 2026-04-26 | vs PHI | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-28 | vs DET | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-29 | vs DET | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-30 | vs DET | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-02 | vs COL | 2 | Over |
| 2026-05-03 | vs COL | 4 | Over |
| 2026-05-03 | vs COL | 1 | Under |
| 2026-05-05 | vs SEA | 5 | Over |
| 2026-05-06 | vs SEA | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-06 | vs SEA | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-09 | vs LAD | 3 | Over |
| 2026-05-10 | vs LAD | 1 | Under |
| 2026-05-10 | vs LAD | 1 | Under |
| 2026-05-12 | vs CHC | 5 | Over |
| 2026-05-13 | vs CHC | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-14 | vs CHC | 1 | Under |
| 2026-05-15 | vs BOS | 1 | Under |
| 2026-05-16 | vs BOS | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-17 | vs BOS | 6 | Over |
| 2026-05-18 | vs MIA | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-19 | vs MIA | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-20 | vs MIA | 4 | Over |
| 2026-05-21 | vs MIA | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-22 | vs WSH | 3 | Over |
| 2026-05-23 | vs WSH | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-24 | vs WSH | 2 | Over |
| 2026-05-26 | vs BOS | 3 | Over |
| 2026-05-27 | vs BOS | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-28 | vs BOS | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-29 | vs CIN | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-30 | vs CIN | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-31 | vs CIN | 0 | Under |
| 2026-06-02 | vs TOR | 0 | Under |
Stats: MLB Stats API. Lines via The Odds API when available. See Austin Riley’s full profile and methodology.
MLB data last updated . Stats refresh each morning; odds and projections refresh through the day.