EdgeTake

C · NYY

Austin Wells — Home Runs

2026 home runs — game-by-game log, hit rates at common lines, recent form, and our matchup-adjusted projection.

Games
45
Home Runs
4
Per Game
0.09
Projection
0.14
Current Line
0.5
Outlook

Over 45 games this season, Austin Wells (NYY) is averaging 0.09 home runs per game, and the last 10 have been hotter at 0.1. The over on 0.5 has hit in 9% of games. Our model projects 0.14, below the market line of 1.08.

Next matchup

Next: vs CLE — their staff ranks 7 of 30 in runs allowed (1 = stingiest), a tough matchup for hitters.

Best price across books
Over 0.5 +425 Caesars

At a line of 0.5 (williamhill_us), Austin Wells went over in 4 of 45 2026 games.

Our projection 0.14 vs market line 1.08 — edge -0.94.

Hit rate at common lines

OverClearedRate
0.54/459%

Share of 2026 games Wells finished above each line.

Recent form

Last 10 avg
0.10
Season avg
0.09

Over 0.5 in 1 of the last 10 games.

Home / away splits

Home (20)
0.05
Away (25)
0.12
Home edge
-0.07

Per-game home runs at home vs. on the road this season — ballpark and travel effects show up here.

Projection is our own model — adjusted for the next opponent’s pitching and ballpark.

2026 Game-by-Game — Home Runs

DateOppHome Runsvs Line
2026-03-26vs SF0Under
2026-03-27vs SF0Under
2026-03-28vs SF0Under
2026-03-31vs SEA0Under
2026-04-01vs SEA0Under
2026-04-03vs MIA0Under
2026-04-04vs MIA0Under
2026-04-05vs MIA0Under
2026-04-07vs ATH0Under
2026-04-09vs ATH0Under
2026-04-10vs TB0Under
2026-04-11vs TB1Over
2026-04-12vs TB0Under
2026-04-13vs LAA0Under
2026-04-14vs LAA0Under
2026-04-15vs LAA0Under
2026-04-17vs KC0Under
2026-04-19vs KC0Under
2026-04-21vs BOS0Under
2026-04-22vs BOS0Under
2026-04-23vs BOS0Under
2026-04-25vs HOU1Over
2026-04-28vs TEX0Under
2026-04-29vs TEX1Over
2026-05-01vs BAL0Under
2026-05-03vs BAL0Under
2026-05-04vs BAL0Under
2026-05-05vs TEX0Under
2026-05-06vs TEX0Under
2026-05-08vs MIL0Under
2026-05-09vs MIL0Under
2026-05-11vs BAL0Under
2026-05-12vs BAL0Under
2026-05-15vs NYM0Under
2026-05-16vs NYM0Under
2026-05-17vs NYM0Under
2026-05-19vs TOR0Under
2026-05-20vs TOR0Under
2026-05-22vs TB1Over
2026-05-24vs TB0Under
2026-05-26vs KC0Under
2026-05-27vs KC0Under
2026-05-31vs ATH0Under
2026-05-31vs ATH0Under
2026-06-02vs CLE0Under

Stats: MLB Stats API. Lines via The Odds API when available. See Austin Wells’s full profile and methodology.

MLB data last updated . Stats refresh each morning; odds and projections refresh through the day.