EdgeTake

C · TOR

Brandon Valenzuela — Home Runs

2026 home runs — game-by-game log, hit rates at common lines, recent form, and our matchup-adjusted projection.

Games
36
Home Runs
4
Per Game
0.11
Projection
0.09
Current Line
0.5
Outlook

Brandon Valenzuela (TOR) sits at 0.11 home runs per game through 36 games, while recent form sits lower at 0 over the last 10. 11% of those games have finished over 0.5. Our projection of 0.09 comes in under the market line of 0.77.

Next matchup

Next: @ ATL — their staff ranks 2 of 30 in runs allowed (1 = stingiest), a tough matchup for hitters.

Best price across books
Over 0.5 +850 Caesars

At a line of 0.5 (williamhill_us), Brandon Valenzuela went over in 4 of 36 2026 games.

Our projection 0.09 vs market line 0.77 — edge -0.68.

Hit rate at common lines

OverClearedRate
0.54/3611%

Share of 2026 games Valenzuela finished above each line.

Recent form

Last 10 avg
0.00
Season avg
0.11

Over 0.5 in 0 of the last 10 games.

Home / away splits

Home (17)
0.18
Away (19)
0.05
Home edge
+0.12

Per-game home runs at home vs. on the road this season — ballpark and travel effects show up here.

Projection is our own model — adjusted for the next opponent’s pitching and ballpark.

2026 Game-by-Game — Home Runs

DateOppHome Runsvs Line
2026-04-05vs CWS0Under
2026-04-06vs LAD0Under
2026-04-07vs LAD0Under
2026-04-08vs LAD0Under
2026-04-10vs MIN1Over
2026-04-11vs MIN0Under
2026-04-12vs MIN0Under
2026-04-14vs MIL0Under
2026-04-15vs MIL0Under
2026-04-19vs AZ0Under
2026-04-22vs LAA0Under
2026-04-26vs CLE0Under
2026-04-29vs BOS1Over
2026-04-30vs MIN0Under
2026-05-02vs MIN1Over
2026-05-03vs MIN0Under
2026-05-04vs TB0Under
2026-05-05vs TB0Under
2026-05-08vs LAA0Under
2026-05-09vs LAA1Over
2026-05-11vs TB0Under
2026-05-12vs TB0Under
2026-05-13vs TB0Under
2026-05-15vs DET0Under
2026-05-17vs DET0Under
2026-05-18vs NYY0Under
2026-05-20vs NYY0Under
2026-05-21vs NYY0Under
2026-05-22vs PIT0Under
2026-05-24vs PIT0Under
2026-05-25vs MIA0Under
2026-05-26vs MIA0Under
2026-05-28vs BAL0Under
2026-05-29vs BAL0Under
2026-05-31vs BAL0Under
2026-06-02vs ATL0Under

Stats: MLB Stats API. Lines via The Odds API when available. See Brandon Valenzuela’s full profile and methodology.

MLB data last updated . Stats refresh each morning; odds and projections refresh through the day.