C · TOR
Brandon Valenzuela — Home Runs
2026 home runs — game-by-game log, hit rates at common lines, recent form, and our matchup-adjusted projection.
Brandon Valenzuela (TOR) sits at 0.11 home runs per game through 36 games, while recent form sits lower at 0 over the last 10. 11% of those games have finished over 0.5. Our projection of 0.09 comes in under the market line of 0.77.
Next: @ ATL — their staff ranks 2 of 30 in runs allowed (1 = stingiest), a tough matchup for hitters.
At a line of 0.5 (williamhill_us), Brandon Valenzuela went over in 4 of 36 2026 games.
Our projection 0.09 vs market line 0.77 — edge -0.68.
Hit rate at common lines
| Over | Cleared | Rate |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 4/36 | 11% |
Share of 2026 games Valenzuela finished above each line.
Recent form
Over 0.5 in 0 of the last 10 games.
Home / away splits
Per-game home runs at home vs. on the road this season — ballpark and travel effects show up here.
Projection is our own model — adjusted for the next opponent’s pitching and ballpark.
2026 Game-by-Game — Home Runs
| Date | Opp | Home Runs | vs Line |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-05 | vs CWS | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-06 | vs LAD | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-07 | vs LAD | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-08 | vs LAD | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-10 | vs MIN | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-11 | vs MIN | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-12 | vs MIN | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-14 | vs MIL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-15 | vs MIL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-19 | vs AZ | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-22 | vs LAA | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-26 | vs CLE | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-29 | vs BOS | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-30 | vs MIN | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-02 | vs MIN | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-03 | vs MIN | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-04 | vs TB | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-05 | vs TB | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-08 | vs LAA | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-09 | vs LAA | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-11 | vs TB | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-12 | vs TB | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-13 | vs TB | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-15 | vs DET | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-17 | vs DET | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-18 | vs NYY | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-20 | vs NYY | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-21 | vs NYY | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-22 | vs PIT | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-24 | vs PIT | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-25 | vs MIA | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-26 | vs MIA | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-28 | vs BAL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-29 | vs BAL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-31 | vs BAL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-06-02 | vs ATL | 0 | Under |
Stats: MLB Stats API. Lines via The Odds API when available. See Brandon Valenzuela’s full profile and methodology.
MLB data last updated . Stats refresh each morning; odds and projections refresh through the day.