EdgeTake

C · TOR

Brandon Valenzuela — Runs

2026 runs — game-by-game log, hit rates at common lines, recent form, and our matchup-adjusted projection.

Games
36
Runs
13
Per Game
0.36
Projection
0.37
Current Line
0.5
Outlook

Over 36 games this season, Brandon Valenzuela (TOR) is averaging 0.36 runs per game, with the last 10 dipping to 0.3. The over on 0.5 has hit in 22% of games. Our projection of 0.37 comes in under the market line of 0.5.

Next matchup

Next: @ ATL — their staff ranks 2 of 30 in runs allowed (1 = stingiest), a tough matchup for hitters.

Best price across books
Over 0.5 +193 DraftKingsUnder 0.5 -225 BetMGM

At a line of 0.5 (draftkings), Brandon Valenzuela went over in 8 of 36 2026 games.

Our projection 0.37 vs market line 0.5 — edge -0.13.

Hit rate at common lines

OverClearedRate
0.58/3622%
1.53/368%

Share of 2026 games Valenzuela finished above each line.

Recent form

Last 10 avg
0.30
Season avg
0.36

Over 0.5 in 3 of the last 10 games.

Home / away splits

Home (17)
0.65
Away (19)
0.11
Home edge
+0.54

Per-game runs at home vs. on the road this season — ballpark and travel effects show up here.

Projection is our own model — adjusted for the next opponent’s pitching and ballpark.

2026 Game-by-Game — Runs

DateOppRunsvs Line
2026-04-05vs CWS0Under
2026-04-06vs LAD0Under
2026-04-07vs LAD0Under
2026-04-08vs LAD0Under
2026-04-10vs MIN2Over
2026-04-11vs MIN0Under
2026-04-12vs MIN0Under
2026-04-14vs MIL0Under
2026-04-15vs MIL0Under
2026-04-19vs AZ0Under
2026-04-22vs LAA0Under
2026-04-26vs CLE0Under
2026-04-29vs BOS3Over
2026-04-30vs MIN0Under
2026-05-02vs MIN1Over
2026-05-03vs MIN0Under
2026-05-04vs TB0Under
2026-05-05vs TB0Under
2026-05-08vs LAA0Under
2026-05-09vs LAA3Over
2026-05-11vs TB0Under
2026-05-12vs TB1Over
2026-05-13vs TB0Under
2026-05-15vs DET0Under
2026-05-17vs DET0Under
2026-05-18vs NYY0Under
2026-05-20vs NYY1Over
2026-05-21vs NYY0Under
2026-05-22vs PIT1Over
2026-05-24vs PIT0Under
2026-05-25vs MIA0Under
2026-05-26vs MIA1Over
2026-05-28vs BAL0Under
2026-05-29vs BAL0Under
2026-05-31vs BAL0Under
2026-06-02vs ATL0Under

Stats: MLB Stats API. Lines via The Odds API when available. See Brandon Valenzuela’s full profile and methodology.

MLB data last updated . Stats refresh each morning; odds and projections refresh through the day.