C · BOS
Carlos Narváez — Home Runs
2026 home runs — game-by-game log, hit rates at common lines, recent form, and our matchup-adjusted projection.
Carlos Narváez (BOS) sits at 0.06 home runs per game through 35 games, while recent form sits lower at 0 over the last 10. They've gone over 0.5 in 6% of those games. Our model projects 0.11, below the market line of 1.23.
Next: vs BAL — their staff ranks 25 of 30 in runs allowed (1 = stingiest), a favorable matchup for hitters.
At a line of 0.5 (williamhill_us), Carlos Narváez went over in 2 of 35 2026 games.
Our projection 0.11 vs market line 1.23 — edge -1.12.
Hit rate at common lines
| Over | Cleared | Rate |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 2/35 | 6% |
Share of 2026 games Narváez finished above each line.
Recent form
Over 0.5 in 0 of the last 10 games.
Home / away splits
Per-game home runs at home vs. on the road this season — ballpark and travel effects show up here.
Projection is our own model — adjusted for the next opponent’s pitching and ballpark.
2026 Game-by-Game — Home Runs
| Date | Opp | Home Runs | vs Line |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-26 | vs CIN | 0 | Under |
| 2026-03-28 | vs CIN | 0 | Under |
| 2026-03-31 | vs HOU | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-03 | vs SD | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-04 | vs SD | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-05 | vs SD | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-06 | vs MIL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-08 | vs MIL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-11 | vs STL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-11 | vs STL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-13 | vs MIN | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-14 | vs MIN | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-19 | vs DET | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-20 | vs DET | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-21 | vs NYY | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-23 | vs NYY | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-24 | vs BAL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-27 | vs TOR | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-28 | vs TOR | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-01 | vs HOU | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-03 | vs HOU | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-04 | vs DET | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-06 | vs DET | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-08 | vs TB | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-10 | vs TB | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-12 | vs PHI | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-14 | vs PHI | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-15 | vs ATL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-17 | vs ATL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-19 | vs KC | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-20 | vs KC | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-22 | vs MIN | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-24 | vs MIN | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-28 | vs ATL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-31 | vs CLE | 0 | Under |
Stats: MLB Stats API. Lines via The Odds API when available. See Carlos Narváez’s full profile and methodology.
MLB data last updated . Stats refresh each morning; odds and projections refresh through the day.