C · BOS
Carlos Narváez — Runs
2026 runs — game-by-game log, hit rates at common lines, recent form, and our matchup-adjusted projection.
Carlos Narváez (BOS) has averaged 0.4 runs per game across 35 games this season, with recent form ahead of that at 0.5 over the last 10. The over on 0.5 has hit in 40% of games. Our model projects 0.48, below the market line of 0.5.
Next: vs BAL — their staff ranks 25 of 30 in runs allowed (1 = stingiest), a favorable matchup for hitters.
At a line of 0.5 (draftkings), Carlos Narváez went over in 14 of 35 2026 games.
Our projection 0.48 vs market line 0.5 — edge -0.02.
Hit rate at common lines
| Over | Cleared | Rate |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 14/35 | 40% |
| 1.5 | 0/35 | 0% |
Share of 2026 games Narváez finished above each line.
Recent form
Over 0.5 in 5 of the last 10 games.
Home / away splits
Per-game runs at home vs. on the road this season — ballpark and travel effects show up here.
Projection is our own model — adjusted for the next opponent’s pitching and ballpark.
2026 Game-by-Game — Runs
| Date | Opp | Runs | vs Line |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-26 | vs CIN | 0 | Under |
| 2026-03-28 | vs CIN | 1 | Over |
| 2026-03-31 | vs HOU | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-03 | vs SD | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-04 | vs SD | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-05 | vs SD | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-06 | vs MIL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-08 | vs MIL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-11 | vs STL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-11 | vs STL | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-13 | vs MIN | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-14 | vs MIN | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-19 | vs DET | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-20 | vs DET | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-21 | vs NYY | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-23 | vs NYY | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-24 | vs BAL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-27 | vs TOR | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-28 | vs TOR | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-01 | vs HOU | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-03 | vs HOU | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-04 | vs DET | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-06 | vs DET | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-08 | vs TB | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-10 | vs TB | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-12 | vs PHI | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-14 | vs PHI | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-15 | vs ATL | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-17 | vs ATL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-19 | vs KC | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-20 | vs KC | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-22 | vs MIN | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-24 | vs MIN | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-28 | vs ATL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-31 | vs CLE | 1 | Over |
Stats: MLB Stats API. Lines via The Odds API when available. See Carlos Narváez’s full profile and methodology.
MLB data last updated . Stats refresh each morning; odds and projections refresh through the day.