EdgeTake

C · BOS

Carlos Narváez — Runs

2026 runs — game-by-game log, hit rates at common lines, recent form, and our matchup-adjusted projection.

Games
35
Runs
14
Per Game
0.40
Projection
0.48
Current Line
0.5
Outlook

Carlos Narváez (BOS) has averaged 0.4 runs per game across 35 games this season, with recent form ahead of that at 0.5 over the last 10. The over on 0.5 has hit in 40% of games. Our model projects 0.48, below the market line of 0.5.

Next matchup

Next: vs BAL — their staff ranks 25 of 30 in runs allowed (1 = stingiest), a favorable matchup for hitters.

Best price across books
Over 0.5 +207 DraftKingsUnder 0.5 -275 BetMGM

At a line of 0.5 (draftkings), Carlos Narváez went over in 14 of 35 2026 games.

Our projection 0.48 vs market line 0.5 — edge -0.02.

Hit rate at common lines

OverClearedRate
0.514/3540%
1.50/350%

Share of 2026 games Narváez finished above each line.

Recent form

Last 10 avg
0.50
Season avg
0.40

Over 0.5 in 5 of the last 10 games.

Home / away splits

Home (18)
0.28
Away (17)
0.53
Home edge
-0.25

Per-game runs at home vs. on the road this season — ballpark and travel effects show up here.

Projection is our own model — adjusted for the next opponent’s pitching and ballpark.

2026 Game-by-Game — Runs

DateOppRunsvs Line
2026-03-26vs CIN0Under
2026-03-28vs CIN1Over
2026-03-31vs HOU0Under
2026-04-03vs SD0Under
2026-04-04vs SD0Under
2026-04-05vs SD1Over
2026-04-06vs MIL0Under
2026-04-08vs MIL0Under
2026-04-11vs STL0Under
2026-04-11vs STL1Over
2026-04-13vs MIN0Under
2026-04-14vs MIN0Under
2026-04-19vs DET0Under
2026-04-20vs DET1Over
2026-04-21vs NYY0Under
2026-04-23vs NYY1Over
2026-04-24vs BAL0Under
2026-04-27vs TOR1Over
2026-04-28vs TOR0Under
2026-05-01vs HOU1Over
2026-05-03vs HOU0Under
2026-05-04vs DET1Over
2026-05-06vs DET1Over
2026-05-08vs TB0Under
2026-05-10vs TB0Under
2026-05-12vs PHI0Under
2026-05-14vs PHI0Under
2026-05-15vs ATL1Over
2026-05-17vs ATL0Under
2026-05-19vs KC1Over
2026-05-20vs KC1Over
2026-05-22vs MIN1Over
2026-05-24vs MIN0Under
2026-05-28vs ATL0Under
2026-05-31vs CLE1Over

Stats: MLB Stats API. Lines via The Odds API when available. See Carlos Narváez’s full profile and methodology.

MLB data last updated . Stats refresh each morning; odds and projections refresh through the day.