C · CHC
Carson Kelly — Hits
2026 hits — game-by-game log, hit rates at common lines, recent form, and our matchup-adjusted projection.
Carson Kelly (CHC) sits at 0.93 hits per game through 44 games, though the last 10 have cooled to 0.6. 61% of those games have finished over 0.5. We project 0.89, ahead of the 0.56 market line.
Next: vs ATH — their staff ranks 22 of 30 in runs allowed (1 = stingiest), a favorable matchup for hitters.
At a line of 0.5 (betrivers), Carson Kelly went over in 27 of 44 2026 games.
Our projection 0.89 vs market line 0.56 — edge +0.33.
Hit rate at common lines
| Over | Cleared | Rate |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 27/44 | 61% |
| 1.5 | 12/44 | 27% |
| 2.5 | 2/44 | 5% |
Share of 2026 games Kelly finished above each line.
Recent form
Over 0.5 in 3 of the last 10 games.
Home / away splits
Per-game hits at home vs. on the road this season — ballpark and travel effects show up here.
Projection is our own model — adjusted for the next opponent’s pitching and ballpark.
2026 Game-by-Game — Hits
| Date | Opp | Hits | vs Line |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-26 | vs WSH | 1 | Over |
| 2026-03-28 | vs WSH | 0 | Under |
| 2026-03-29 | vs WSH | 0 | Under |
| 2026-03-30 | vs LAA | 1 | Over |
| 2026-03-31 | vs LAA | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-01 | vs LAA | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-03 | vs CLE | 2 | Over |
| 2026-04-04 | vs CLE | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-06 | vs TB | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-08 | vs TB | 2 | Over |
| 2026-04-10 | vs PIT | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-11 | vs PIT | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-12 | vs PIT | 2 | Over |
| 2026-04-13 | vs PHI | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-14 | vs PHI | 2 | Over |
| 2026-04-17 | vs NYM | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-18 | vs NYM | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-19 | vs NYM | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-21 | vs PHI | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-23 | vs PHI | 3 | Over |
| 2026-04-25 | vs LAD | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-26 | vs LAD | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-29 | vs SD | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-01 | vs AZ | 2 | Over |
| 2026-05-03 | vs AZ | 2 | Over |
| 2026-05-04 | vs CIN | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-06 | vs CIN | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-09 | vs TEX | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-09 | vs TEX | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-10 | vs TEX | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-13 | vs ATL | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-15 | vs CWS | 3 | Over |
| 2026-05-17 | vs CWS | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-18 | vs MIL | 2 | Over |
| 2026-05-19 | vs MIL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-20 | vs MIL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-22 | vs HOU | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-24 | vs HOU | 2 | Over |
| 2026-05-25 | vs PIT | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-26 | vs PIT | 2 | Over |
| 2026-05-27 | vs PIT | 2 | Over |
| 2026-05-29 | vs STL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-31 | vs STL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-06-03 | vs ATH | 0 | Under |
Stats: MLB Stats API. Lines via The Odds API when available. See Carson Kelly’s full profile and methodology.
MLB data last updated . Stats refresh each morning; odds and projections refresh through the day.