EdgeTake

C · CHC

Carson Kelly — Hits

2026 hits — game-by-game log, hit rates at common lines, recent form, and our matchup-adjusted projection.

Games
44
Hits
41
Per Game
0.93
Projection
0.89
Current Line
0.5
Outlook

Carson Kelly (CHC) sits at 0.93 hits per game through 44 games, though the last 10 have cooled to 0.6. 61% of those games have finished over 0.5. We project 0.89, ahead of the 0.56 market line.

Next matchup

Next: vs ATH — their staff ranks 22 of 30 in runs allowed (1 = stingiest), a favorable matchup for hitters.

Best price across books
Over 0.5 -177 BetRivers

At a line of 0.5 (betrivers), Carson Kelly went over in 27 of 44 2026 games.

Our projection 0.89 vs market line 0.56 — edge +0.33.

Hit rate at common lines

OverClearedRate
0.527/4461%
1.512/4427%
2.52/445%

Share of 2026 games Kelly finished above each line.

Recent form

Last 10 avg
0.60
Season avg
0.93

Over 0.5 in 3 of the last 10 games.

Home / away splits

Home (24)
0.88
Away (20)
1.00
Home edge
-0.13

Per-game hits at home vs. on the road this season — ballpark and travel effects show up here.

Projection is our own model — adjusted for the next opponent’s pitching and ballpark.

2026 Game-by-Game — Hits

DateOppHitsvs Line
2026-03-26vs WSH1Over
2026-03-28vs WSH0Under
2026-03-29vs WSH0Under
2026-03-30vs LAA1Over
2026-03-31vs LAA1Over
2026-04-01vs LAA0Under
2026-04-03vs CLE2Over
2026-04-04vs CLE1Over
2026-04-06vs TB1Over
2026-04-08vs TB2Over
2026-04-10vs PIT1Over
2026-04-11vs PIT0Under
2026-04-12vs PIT2Over
2026-04-13vs PHI1Over
2026-04-14vs PHI2Over
2026-04-17vs NYM1Over
2026-04-18vs NYM1Over
2026-04-19vs NYM0Under
2026-04-21vs PHI1Over
2026-04-23vs PHI3Over
2026-04-25vs LAD0Under
2026-04-26vs LAD1Over
2026-04-29vs SD1Over
2026-05-01vs AZ2Over
2026-05-03vs AZ2Over
2026-05-04vs CIN0Under
2026-05-06vs CIN1Over
2026-05-09vs TEX0Under
2026-05-09vs TEX0Under
2026-05-10vs TEX0Under
2026-05-13vs ATL1Over
2026-05-15vs CWS3Over
2026-05-17vs CWS1Over
2026-05-18vs MIL2Over
2026-05-19vs MIL0Under
2026-05-20vs MIL0Under
2026-05-22vs HOU0Under
2026-05-24vs HOU2Over
2026-05-25vs PIT0Under
2026-05-26vs PIT2Over
2026-05-27vs PIT2Over
2026-05-29vs STL0Under
2026-05-31vs STL0Under
2026-06-03vs ATH0Under

Stats: MLB Stats API. Lines via The Odds API when available. See Carson Kelly’s full profile and methodology.

MLB data last updated . Stats refresh each morning; odds and projections refresh through the day.