C · CHC
Carson Kelly — Runs
2026 runs — game-by-game log, hit rates at common lines, recent form, and our matchup-adjusted projection.
Carson Kelly (CHC) has averaged 0.41 runs per game across 44 games this season, with the last 10 dipping to 0.2. That 0.5 line has been cleared in 34% of games this season. Our projection of 0.41 comes in under the market line of 0.5.
Next: vs ATH — their staff ranks 22 of 30 in runs allowed (1 = stingiest), a favorable matchup for hitters.
At a line of 0.5 (draftkings), Carson Kelly went over in 15 of 44 2026 games.
Our projection 0.41 vs market line 0.5 — edge -0.09.
Hit rate at common lines
| Over | Cleared | Rate |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 15/44 | 34% |
| 1.5 | 3/44 | 7% |
Share of 2026 games Kelly finished above each line.
Recent form
Over 0.5 in 2 of the last 10 games.
Home / away splits
Per-game runs at home vs. on the road this season — ballpark and travel effects show up here.
Projection is our own model — adjusted for the next opponent’s pitching and ballpark.
2026 Game-by-Game — Runs
| Date | Opp | Runs | vs Line |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-26 | vs WSH | 0 | Under |
| 2026-03-28 | vs WSH | 0 | Under |
| 2026-03-29 | vs WSH | 0 | Under |
| 2026-03-30 | vs LAA | 0 | Under |
| 2026-03-31 | vs LAA | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-01 | vs LAA | 2 | Over |
| 2026-04-03 | vs CLE | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-04 | vs CLE | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-06 | vs TB | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-08 | vs TB | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-10 | vs PIT | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-11 | vs PIT | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-12 | vs PIT | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-13 | vs PHI | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-14 | vs PHI | 2 | Over |
| 2026-04-17 | vs NYM | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-18 | vs NYM | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-19 | vs NYM | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-21 | vs PHI | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-23 | vs PHI | 2 | Over |
| 2026-04-25 | vs LAD | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-26 | vs LAD | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-29 | vs SD | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-01 | vs AZ | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-03 | vs AZ | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-04 | vs CIN | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-06 | vs CIN | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-09 | vs TEX | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-09 | vs TEX | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-10 | vs TEX | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-13 | vs ATL | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-15 | vs CWS | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-17 | vs CWS | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-18 | vs MIL | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-19 | vs MIL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-20 | vs MIL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-22 | vs HOU | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-24 | vs HOU | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-25 | vs PIT | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-26 | vs PIT | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-27 | vs PIT | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-29 | vs STL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-31 | vs STL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-06-03 | vs ATH | 0 | Under |
Stats: MLB Stats API. Lines via The Odds API when available. See Carson Kelly’s full profile and methodology.
MLB data last updated . Stats refresh each morning; odds and projections refresh through the day.