EdgeTake

1B · MIA

Christopher Morel — Runs

2026 runs — game-by-game log, hit rates at common lines, recent form, and our matchup-adjusted projection.

Games
20
Runs
3
Per Game
0.15
Projection
0.34
Current Line
0.5
Outlook

Over 20 games this season, Christopher Morel (MIA) is averaging 0.15 runs per game, while recent form sits lower at 0.1 over the last 10. That 0.5 line has been cleared in 15% of games this season. We project 0.34, short of the 0.5 market line.

Next matchup

Next: vs TB — their staff ranks 14 of 30 in runs allowed (1 = stingiest), a average matchup for hitters.

Best price across books
Over 0.5 +180 BetMGMUnder 0.5 -250 BetMGM

At a line of 0.5 (betmgm), Christopher Morel went over in 3 of 20 2026 games.

Our projection 0.34 vs market line 0.5 — edge -0.16.

Hit rate at common lines

OverClearedRate
0.53/2015%
1.50/200%

Share of 2026 games Morel finished above each line.

Recent form

Last 10 avg
0.10
Season avg
0.15

Over 0.5 in 1 of the last 10 games.

Home / away splits

Home (13)
0.08
Away (7)
0.29
Home edge
-0.21

Per-game runs at home vs. on the road this season — ballpark and travel effects show up here.

Projection is our own model — adjusted for the next opponent’s pitching and ballpark.

2026 Game-by-Game — Runs

DateOppRunsvs Line
2026-04-29vs LAD1Over
2026-05-01vs PHI0Under
2026-05-02vs PHI0Under
2026-05-03vs PHI0Under
2026-05-04vs PHI0Under
2026-05-06vs BAL0Under
2026-05-07vs BAL0Under
2026-05-08vs WSH0Under
2026-05-10vs WSH1Over
2026-05-12vs MIN0Under
2026-05-14vs MIN0Under
2026-05-15vs TB0Under
2026-05-17vs TB0Under
2026-05-18vs ATL0Under
2026-05-19vs ATL0Under
2026-05-20vs ATL0Under
2026-05-21vs ATL0Under
2026-05-24vs NYM0Under
2026-05-27vs TOR0Under
2026-05-30vs NYM1Over

Stats: MLB Stats API. Lines via The Odds API when available. See Christopher Morel’s full profile and methodology.

MLB data last updated . Stats refresh each morning; odds and projections refresh through the day.