EdgeTake

RF · SEA

Connor Joe — Home Runs

2026 home runs — game-by-game log, hit rates at common lines, recent form, and our matchup-adjusted projection.

Games
16
Home Runs
1
Per Game
0.06
Projection
0.08
Current Line
0.5
Outlook

Connor Joe (SEA) sits at 0.06 home runs per game through 16 games, while recent form sits lower at 0 over the last 10. The over on 0.5 has hit in 6% of games. Our model projects 0.08, below the market line of 1.17.

Next matchup

Next: @ DET — their staff ranks 12 of 30 in runs allowed (1 = stingiest), a average matchup for hitters.

Best price across books
Over 0.5 +750 Caesars

At a line of 0.5 (williamhill_us), Connor Joe went over in 1 of 16 2026 games.

Our projection 0.08 vs market line 1.17 — edge -1.09.

Hit rate at common lines

OverClearedRate
0.51/166%

Share of 2026 games Joe finished above each line.

Recent form

Last 10 avg
0.00
Season avg
0.06

Over 0.5 in 0 of the last 10 games.

Home / away splits

Home (10)
0.10
Away (6)
0.00
Home edge
+0.10

Per-game home runs at home vs. on the road this season — ballpark and travel effects show up here.

Projection is our own model — adjusted for the next opponent’s pitching and ballpark.

2026 Game-by-Game — Home Runs

DateOppHome Runsvs Line
2026-04-08vs TEX0Under
2026-04-17vs SD0Under
2026-04-19vs TEX0Under
2026-04-25vs STL0Under
2026-04-26vs STL0Under
2026-05-02vs KC1Over
2026-05-03vs KC0Under
2026-05-03vs KC0Under
2026-05-05vs ATL0Under
2026-05-06vs ATL0Under
2026-05-10vs CWS0Under
2026-05-14vs HOU0Under
2026-05-16vs SD0Under
2026-05-16vs SD0Under
2026-05-19vs CWS0Under
2026-05-20vs CWS0Under

Stats: MLB Stats API. Lines via The Odds API when available. See Connor Joe’s full profile and methodology.

MLB data last updated . Stats refresh each morning; odds and projections refresh through the day.