EdgeTake

DH · ATL

Dominic Smith — Home Runs

2026 home runs — game-by-game log, hit rates at common lines, recent form, and our matchup-adjusted projection.

Games
48
Home Runs
5
Per Game
0.10
Projection
0.1
Current Line
0.5
Outlook

Dominic Smith (ATL) has averaged 0.1 home runs per game across 48 games this season, and the last 10 hold near that at 0.1. 10% of those games have finished over 0.5. We project 0.1, short of the 1.3 market line.

Next matchup

Next: vs TOR — their staff ranks 10 of 30 in runs allowed (1 = stingiest), a tough matchup for hitters.

Best price across books
Over 0.5 +625 Caesars

At a line of 0.5 (williamhill_us), Dominic Smith went over in 5 of 48 2026 games.

Our projection 0.1 vs market line 1.3 — edge -1.2.

Hit rate at common lines

OverClearedRate
0.55/4810%

Share of 2026 games Smith finished above each line.

Recent form

Last 10 avg
0.10
Season avg
0.10

Over 0.5 in 1 of the last 10 games.

Home / away splits

Home (23)
0.09
Away (25)
0.12
Home edge
-0.03

Per-game home runs at home vs. on the road this season — ballpark and travel effects show up here.

Projection is our own model — adjusted for the next opponent’s pitching and ballpark.

2026 Game-by-Game — Home Runs

DateOppHome Runsvs Line
2026-03-28vs KC1Over
2026-03-29vs KC0Under
2026-03-31vs ATH0Under
2026-04-01vs ATH0Under
2026-04-03vs AZ1Over
2026-04-04vs AZ0Under
2026-04-04vs AZ0Under
2026-04-05vs AZ0Under
2026-04-07vs LAA0Under
2026-04-10vs CLE0Under
2026-04-11vs CLE0Under
2026-04-12vs CLE1Over
2026-04-13vs MIA0Under
2026-04-14vs MIA0Under
2026-04-15vs MIA0Under
2026-04-17vs PHI1Over
2026-04-19vs PHI0Under
2026-04-20vs WSH0Under
2026-04-23vs WSH0Under
2026-04-24vs PHI0Under
2026-04-25vs PHI0Under
2026-04-28vs DET0Under
2026-04-29vs DET0Under
2026-04-30vs DET0Under
2026-05-03vs COL0Under
2026-05-05vs SEA0Under
2026-05-06vs SEA0Under
2026-05-06vs SEA0Under
2026-05-09vs LAD0Under
2026-05-10vs LAD0Under
2026-05-10vs LAD0Under
2026-05-12vs CHC0Under
2026-05-13vs CHC0Under
2026-05-14vs CHC0Under
2026-05-15vs BOS0Under
2026-05-17vs BOS0Under
2026-05-18vs MIA0Under
2026-05-19vs MIA0Under
2026-05-20vs MIA1Over
2026-05-21vs MIA0Under
2026-05-22vs WSH0Under
2026-05-23vs WSH0Under
2026-05-26vs BOS0Under
2026-05-28vs BOS0Under
2026-05-29vs CIN0Under
2026-05-30vs CIN0Under
2026-05-31vs CIN0Under
2026-06-02vs TOR0Under

Stats: MLB Stats API. Lines via The Odds API when available. See Dominic Smith’s full profile and methodology.

MLB data last updated . Stats refresh each morning; odds and projections refresh through the day.