EdgeTake

DH · ATL

Dominic Smith — Runs

2026 runs — game-by-game log, hit rates at common lines, recent form, and our matchup-adjusted projection.

Games
48
Runs
21
Per Game
0.44
Projection
0.49
Current Line
0.5
Outlook

Over 48 games this season, Dominic Smith (ATL) is averaging 0.44 runs per game, and the last 10 have been hotter at 0.8. 29% of those games have finished over 0.5. Our model projects 0.49, roughly in line with the 0.5 market line.

Next matchup

Next: vs TOR — their staff ranks 10 of 30 in runs allowed (1 = stingiest), a tough matchup for hitters.

Best price across books
Over 0.5 +161 DraftKingsUnder 0.5 -200 BetMGM

At a line of 0.5 (draftkings), Dominic Smith went over in 14 of 48 2026 games.

Our projection 0.49 vs market line 0.5 — edge -0.01.

Hit rate at common lines

OverClearedRate
0.514/4829%
1.57/4815%

Share of 2026 games Smith finished above each line.

Recent form

Last 10 avg
0.80
Season avg
0.44

Over 0.5 in 5 of the last 10 games.

Home / away splits

Home (23)
0.43
Away (25)
0.44
Home edge
-0.01

Per-game runs at home vs. on the road this season — ballpark and travel effects show up here.

Projection is our own model — adjusted for the next opponent’s pitching and ballpark.

2026 Game-by-Game — Runs

DateOppRunsvs Line
2026-03-28vs KC1Over
2026-03-29vs KC0Under
2026-03-31vs ATH1Over
2026-04-01vs ATH2Over
2026-04-03vs AZ2Over
2026-04-04vs AZ0Under
2026-04-04vs AZ0Under
2026-04-05vs AZ0Under
2026-04-07vs LAA0Under
2026-04-10vs CLE2Over
2026-04-11vs CLE0Under
2026-04-12vs CLE1Over
2026-04-13vs MIA0Under
2026-04-14vs MIA0Under
2026-04-15vs MIA0Under
2026-04-17vs PHI1Over
2026-04-19vs PHI0Under
2026-04-20vs WSH0Under
2026-04-23vs WSH0Under
2026-04-24vs PHI1Over
2026-04-25vs PHI0Under
2026-04-28vs DET0Under
2026-04-29vs DET0Under
2026-04-30vs DET0Under
2026-05-03vs COL0Under
2026-05-05vs SEA0Under
2026-05-06vs SEA0Under
2026-05-06vs SEA0Under
2026-05-09vs LAD0Under
2026-05-10vs LAD0Under
2026-05-10vs LAD0Under
2026-05-12vs CHC2Over
2026-05-13vs CHC0Under
2026-05-14vs CHC0Under
2026-05-15vs BOS0Under
2026-05-17vs BOS0Under
2026-05-18vs MIA0Under
2026-05-19vs MIA0Under
2026-05-20vs MIA2Over
2026-05-21vs MIA2Over
2026-05-22vs WSH0Under
2026-05-23vs WSH0Under
2026-05-26vs BOS0Under
2026-05-28vs BOS1Over
2026-05-29vs CIN2Over
2026-05-30vs CIN0Under
2026-05-31vs CIN1Over
2026-06-02vs TOR0Under

Stats: MLB Stats API. Lines via The Odds API when available. See Dominic Smith’s full profile and methodology.

MLB data last updated . Stats refresh each morning; odds and projections refresh through the day.