OF · PIT
Esmerlyn Valdez — Hits
2026 hits — game-by-game log, hit rates at common lines, recent form, and our matchup-adjusted projection.
Esmerlyn Valdez (PIT) sits at 0.4 hits per game through 5 games, and the last 10 hold near that at 0.4. That 0.5 line has been cleared in 40% of games this season. We project 0.47, short of the 0.64 market line.
Next: @ HOU — their staff ranks 29 of 30 in runs allowed (1 = stingiest), a favorable matchup for hitters.
Under 0.5 +106 at DraftKings — model 54% to hit, +11.1% EV.
At a line of 0.5 (draftkings), Esmerlyn Valdez went over in 2 of 5 2026 games.
Our projection 0.47 vs market line 0.64 — edge -0.17.
Hit rate at common lines
| Over | Cleared | Rate |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 2/5 | 40% |
| 1.5 | 0/5 | 0% |
| 2.5 | 0/5 | 0% |
Share of 2026 games Valdez finished above each line.
Recent form
Over 0.5 in 2 of the last 5 games.
Home / away splits
Per-game hits at home vs. on the road this season — ballpark and travel effects show up here.
Projection is our own model — adjusted for the next opponent’s pitching and ballpark.
2026 Game-by-Game — Hits
| Date | Opp | Hits | vs Line |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-22 | vs TOR | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-23 | vs TOR | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-24 | vs TOR | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-26 | vs CHC | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-27 | vs CHC | 0 | Under |
Stats: MLB Stats API. Lines via The Odds API when available. See Esmerlyn Valdez’s full profile and methodology.
MLB data last updated . Stats refresh each morning; odds and projections refresh through the day.