OF · PIT
Esmerlyn Valdez — Home Runs
2026 home runs — game-by-game log, hit rates at common lines, recent form, and our matchup-adjusted projection.
Over 5 games this season, Esmerlyn Valdez (PIT) is averaging 0.4 home runs per game, and the last 10 hold near that at 0.4. 40% of those games have finished over 0.5. Our projection of 0.11 comes in under the market line of 1.
Next: @ HOU — their staff ranks 29 of 30 in runs allowed (1 = stingiest), a favorable matchup for hitters.
At a line of 0.5 (williamhill_us), Esmerlyn Valdez went over in 2 of 5 2026 games.
Our projection 0.11 vs market line 1 — edge -0.89.
Hit rate at common lines
| Over | Cleared | Rate |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 2/5 | 40% |
Share of 2026 games Valdez finished above each line.
Recent form
Over 0.5 in 2 of the last 5 games.
Home / away splits
Per-game home runs at home vs. on the road this season — ballpark and travel effects show up here.
Projection is our own model — adjusted for the next opponent’s pitching and ballpark.
2026 Game-by-Game — Home Runs
| Date | Opp | Home Runs | vs Line |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-22 | vs TOR | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-23 | vs TOR | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-24 | vs TOR | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-26 | vs CHC | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-27 | vs CHC | 0 | Under |
Stats: MLB Stats API. Lines via The Odds API when available. See Esmerlyn Valdez’s full profile and methodology.
MLB data last updated . Stats refresh each morning; odds and projections refresh through the day.