EdgeTake

OF · PIT

Esmerlyn Valdez — Total Bases

2026 total bases — game-by-game log, hit rates at common lines, recent form, and our matchup-adjusted projection.

Games
5
Total Bases
8
Per Game
1.60
Projection
1.18
Current Line
1.5
Outlook

Over 5 games this season, Esmerlyn Valdez (PIT) is averaging 1.6 total bases per game, tracking close to that at 1.6 over the last 10. They've gone over 1.5 in 40% of those games. Our projection of 1.18 sits above the market line of 0.83.

Next matchup

Next: @ HOU — their staff ranks 29 of 30 in runs allowed (1 = stingiest), a favorable matchup for hitters.

Best price across books
Over 1.5 +175 BetRivers

At a line of 1.5 (betrivers), Esmerlyn Valdez went over in 2 of 5 2026 games.

Our projection 1.18 vs market line 0.83 — edge +0.35.

Hit rate at common lines

OverClearedRate
0.52/540%
1.52/540%
2.52/540%
3.52/540%

Share of 2026 games Valdez finished above each line.

Recent form

Last 5 avg
1.60
Season avg
1.60

Over 1.5 in 2 of the last 5 games.

Home / away splits

Home (2)
2.00
Away (3)
1.33
Home edge
+0.67

Per-game total bases at home vs. on the road this season — ballpark and travel effects show up here.

Projection is our own model — adjusted for the next opponent’s pitching and ballpark.

2026 Game-by-Game — Total Bases

DateOppTotal Basesvs Line
2026-05-22vs TOR0Under
2026-05-23vs TOR0Under
2026-05-24vs TOR4Over
2026-05-26vs CHC4Over
2026-05-27vs CHC0Under

Stats: MLB Stats API. Lines via The Odds API when available. See Esmerlyn Valdez’s full profile and methodology.

MLB data last updated . Stats refresh each morning; odds and projections refresh through the day.