EdgeTake

RF · SD

Fernando Tatis Jr. — Runs

2026 runs — game-by-game log, hit rates at common lines, recent form, and our matchup-adjusted projection.

Games
58
Runs
22
Per Game
0.38
Projection
0.65
Current Line
0.5
Outlook

Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) sits at 0.38 runs per game through 58 games, with recent form ahead of that at 0.5 over the last 10. The over on 0.5 has hit in 34% of games. We project 0.65, ahead of the 0.5 market line.

Next matchup

Next: @ PHI — their staff ranks 16 of 30 in runs allowed (1 = stingiest), a average matchup for hitters.

Best price across books
Over 0.5 +130 BetMGMUnder 0.5 -175 BetMGM

At a line of 0.5 (betmgm), Fernando Tatis Jr. went over in 20 of 58 2026 games.

Our projection 0.65 vs market line 0.5 — edge +0.15.

Hit rate at common lines

OverClearedRate
0.520/5834%
1.52/583%

Share of 2026 games Jr. finished above each line.

Recent form

Last 10 avg
0.50
Season avg
0.38

Over 0.5 in 4 of the last 10 games.

Home / away splits

Home (31)
0.26
Away (27)
0.52
Home edge
-0.26

Per-game runs at home vs. on the road this season — ballpark and travel effects show up here.

Projection is our own model — adjusted for the next opponent’s pitching and ballpark.

2026 Game-by-Game — Runs

DateOppRunsvs Line
2026-03-26vs DET1Over
2026-03-28vs DET0Under
2026-03-29vs DET0Under
2026-03-31vs SF0Under
2026-04-01vs SF1Over
2026-04-01vs SF0Under
2026-04-03vs BOS0Under
2026-04-04vs BOS1Over
2026-04-05vs BOS1Over
2026-04-06vs PIT1Over
2026-04-07vs PIT0Under
2026-04-08vs PIT1Over
2026-04-10vs COL0Under
2026-04-11vs COL0Under
2026-04-12vs COL0Under
2026-04-12vs COL0Under
2026-04-15vs SEA1Over
2026-04-16vs SEA0Under
2026-04-17vs SEA1Over
2026-04-18vs LAA0Under
2026-04-19vs LAA0Under
2026-04-19vs LAA1Over
2026-04-22vs COL0Under
2026-04-23vs COL0Under
2026-04-23vs COL0Under
2026-04-25vs AZ0Under
2026-04-26vs AZ2Over
2026-04-28vs CHC0Under
2026-04-29vs CHC0Under
2026-04-29vs CHC0Under
2026-05-02vs CWS1Over
2026-05-03vs CWS0Under
2026-05-05vs SF0Under
2026-05-06vs SF1Over
2026-05-06vs SF1Over
2026-05-08vs STL0Under
2026-05-09vs STL0Under
2026-05-09vs STL0Under
2026-05-10vs STL0Under
2026-05-12vs MIL1Over
2026-05-13vs MIL0Under
2026-05-14vs MIL0Under
2026-05-16vs SEA0Under
2026-05-16vs SEA0Under
2026-05-17vs SEA1Over
2026-05-19vs LAD0Under
2026-05-20vs LAD1Over
2026-05-21vs LAD0Under
2026-05-23vs ATH2Over
2026-05-24vs ATH0Under
2026-05-24vs ATH0Under
2026-05-25vs PHI0Under
2026-05-27vs PHI0Under
2026-05-27vs PHI0Under
2026-05-29vs WSH1Over
2026-05-30vs WSH1Over
2026-05-31vs WSH0Under
2026-06-02vs PHI1Over

Stats: MLB Stats API. Lines via The Odds API when available. See Fernando Tatis Jr.’s full profile and methodology.

MLB data last updated . Stats refresh each morning; odds and projections refresh through the day.