EdgeTake

3B · MIA

Graham Pauley — Total Bases

2026 total bases — game-by-game log, hit rates at common lines, recent form, and our matchup-adjusted projection.

Games
31
Total Bases
23
Per Game
0.74
Projection
0.93
Current Line
0.5
Outlook

Graham Pauley (MIA) sits at 0.74 total bases per game through 31 games, while recent form sits lower at 0.1 over the last 10. That 0.5 line has been cleared in 39% of games this season. Our model projects 0.93, a step above the market line of 0.5.

Next matchup

Next: vs TB — their staff ranks 14 of 30 in runs allowed (1 = stingiest), a average matchup for hitters.

Best price across books

Under 0.5 -110 at BetMGM — model 49% to hit, -5.9% EV.

Over 0.5 -117 CaesarsUnder 0.5 -110 BetMGM

At a line of 0.5 (williamhill_us), Graham Pauley went over in 12 of 31 2026 games.

Our projection 0.93 vs market line 0.5 — edge +0.43.

Hit rate at common lines

OverClearedRate
0.512/3139%
1.57/3123%
2.52/316%
3.52/316%

Share of 2026 games Pauley finished above each line.

Recent form

Last 10 avg
0.10
Season avg
0.74

Over 0.5 in 1 of the last 10 games.

Home / away splits

Home (18)
0.56
Away (13)
1.00
Home edge
-0.44

Per-game total bases at home vs. on the road this season — ballpark and travel effects show up here.

Projection is our own model — adjusted for the next opponent’s pitching and ballpark.

2026 Game-by-Game — Total Bases

DateOppTotal Basesvs Line
2026-03-28vs COL1Over
2026-03-30vs CWS0Under
2026-03-31vs CWS0Under
2026-04-01vs CWS4Over
2026-04-03vs NYY0Under
2026-04-05vs NYY2Over
2026-04-07vs CIN0Under
2026-04-08vs CIN0Under
2026-04-09vs CIN2Over
2026-04-10vs DET0Under
2026-04-11vs DET0Under
2026-04-13vs ATL1Over
2026-04-14vs ATL2Over
2026-04-15vs ATL2Over
2026-04-17vs MIL0Under
2026-04-19vs MIL0Under
2026-04-20vs STL0Under
2026-04-21vs STL1Over
2026-04-22vs STL1Over
2026-04-25vs SF2Over
2026-04-26vs SF4Over
2026-04-29vs LAD0Under
2026-04-29vs LAD0Under
2026-05-02vs PHI0Under
2026-05-03vs PHI0Under
2026-05-04vs PHI0Under
2026-05-05vs BAL0Under
2026-05-23vs NYM1Over
2026-05-24vs NYM0Under
2026-05-26vs TOR0Under
2026-05-27vs TOR0Under

Stats: MLB Stats API. Lines via The Odds API when available. See Graham Pauley’s full profile and methodology.

MLB data last updated . Stats refresh each morning; odds and projections refresh through the day.