1B · AZ
Ildemaro Vargas — Runs
2026 runs — game-by-game log, hit rates at common lines, recent form, and our matchup-adjusted projection.
Ildemaro Vargas (AZ) has averaged 0.57 runs per game across 53 games this season, though the last 10 have cooled to 0.2. That 0.5 line has been cleared in 42% of games this season. Our projection of 0.36 comes in under the market line of 0.5.
Next: vs LAD — their staff ranks 1 of 30 in runs allowed (1 = stingiest), a tough matchup for hitters.
At a line of 0.5 (betmgm), Ildemaro Vargas went over in 22 of 53 2026 games.
Our projection 0.36 vs market line 0.5 — edge -0.14.
Hit rate at common lines
| Over | Cleared | Rate |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 22/53 | 42% |
| 1.5 | 7/53 | 13% |
Share of 2026 games Vargas finished above each line.
Recent form
Over 0.5 in 2 of the last 10 games.
Home / away splits
Per-game runs at home vs. on the road this season — ballpark and travel effects show up here.
Projection is our own model — adjusted for the next opponent’s pitching and ballpark.
2026 Game-by-Game — Runs
| Date | Opp | Runs | vs Line |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 | vs DET | 2 | Over |
| 2026-04-01 | vs DET | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-03 | vs ATL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-05 | vs ATL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-07 | vs NYM | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-08 | vs NYM | 2 | Over |
| 2026-04-09 | vs NYM | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-10 | vs PHI | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-12 | vs PHI | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-13 | vs BAL | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-14 | vs BAL | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-15 | vs BAL | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-18 | vs TOR | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-19 | vs TOR | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-19 | vs TOR | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-22 | vs CWS | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-23 | vs CWS | 2 | Over |
| 2026-04-23 | vs CWS | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-25 | vs SD | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-26 | vs SD | 3 | Over |
| 2026-04-28 | vs MIL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-29 | vs MIL | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-30 | vs MIL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-01 | vs CHC | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-02 | vs CHC | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-03 | vs CHC | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-06 | vs PIT | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-07 | vs PIT | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-07 | vs PIT | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-09 | vs NYM | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-09 | vs NYM | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-10 | vs NYM | 2 | Over |
| 2026-05-12 | vs TEX | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-13 | vs TEX | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-14 | vs TEX | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-16 | vs COL | 2 | Over |
| 2026-05-16 | vs COL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-17 | vs COL | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-19 | vs SF | 2 | Over |
| 2026-05-20 | vs SF | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-20 | vs SF | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-22 | vs COL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-23 | vs COL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-24 | vs COL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-24 | vs COL | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-25 | vs SF | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-27 | vs SF | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-27 | vs SF | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-30 | vs SEA | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-31 | vs SEA | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-31 | vs SEA | 0 | Under |
| 2026-06-02 | vs LAD | 0 | Under |
| 2026-06-03 | vs LAD | 0 | Under |
Stats: MLB Stats API. Lines via The Odds API when available. See Ildemaro Vargas’s full profile and methodology.
MLB data last updated . Stats refresh each morning; odds and projections refresh through the day.