1B · AZ
Ildemaro Vargas — Total Bases
2026 total bases — game-by-game log, hit rates at common lines, recent form, and our matchup-adjusted projection.
Over 53 games this season, Ildemaro Vargas (AZ) is averaging 1.77 total bases per game, while recent form sits lower at 0.6 over the last 10. That 0.5 line has been cleared in 75% of games this season. Our model projects 1.11, below the market line of 1.3.
Next: vs LAD — their staff ranks 1 of 30 in runs allowed (1 = stingiest), a tough matchup for hitters.
Under 0.5 +119 at Caesars — model 44% to hit, -4.0% EV.
At a line of 0.5 (williamhill_us), Ildemaro Vargas went over in 40 of 53 2026 games.
Our projection 1.11 vs market line 1.3 — edge -0.19.
Hit rate at common lines
| Over | Cleared | Rate |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 40/53 | 75% |
| 1.5 | 21/53 | 40% |
| 2.5 | 13/53 | 25% |
| 3.5 | 8/53 | 15% |
Share of 2026 games Vargas finished above each line.
Recent form
Over 0.5 in 5 of the last 10 games.
Home / away splits
Per-game total bases at home vs. on the road this season — ballpark and travel effects show up here.
Projection is our own model — adjusted for the next opponent’s pitching and ballpark.
2026 Game-by-Game — Total Bases
| Date | Opp | Total Bases | vs Line |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 | vs DET | 5 | Over |
| 2026-04-01 | vs DET | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-03 | vs ATL | 3 | Over |
| 2026-04-05 | vs ATL | 3 | Over |
| 2026-04-07 | vs NYM | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-08 | vs NYM | 3 | Over |
| 2026-04-09 | vs NYM | 2 | Over |
| 2026-04-10 | vs PHI | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-12 | vs PHI | 2 | Over |
| 2026-04-13 | vs BAL | 3 | Over |
| 2026-04-14 | vs BAL | 4 | Over |
| 2026-04-15 | vs BAL | 3 | Over |
| 2026-04-18 | vs TOR | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-19 | vs TOR | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-19 | vs TOR | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-22 | vs CWS | 4 | Over |
| 2026-04-23 | vs CWS | 8 | Over |
| 2026-04-23 | vs CWS | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-25 | vs SD | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-26 | vs SD | 9 | Over |
| 2026-04-28 | vs MIL | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-29 | vs MIL | 2 | Over |
| 2026-04-30 | vs MIL | 2 | Over |
| 2026-05-01 | vs CHC | 4 | Over |
| 2026-05-02 | vs CHC | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-03 | vs CHC | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-06 | vs PIT | 2 | Over |
| 2026-05-07 | vs PIT | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-07 | vs PIT | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-09 | vs NYM | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-09 | vs NYM | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-10 | vs NYM | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-12 | vs TEX | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-13 | vs TEX | 5 | Over |
| 2026-05-14 | vs TEX | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-16 | vs COL | 5 | Over |
| 2026-05-16 | vs COL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-17 | vs COL | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-19 | vs SF | 2 | Over |
| 2026-05-20 | vs SF | 2 | Over |
| 2026-05-20 | vs SF | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-22 | vs COL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-23 | vs COL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-24 | vs COL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-24 | vs COL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-25 | vs SF | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-27 | vs SF | 2 | Over |
| 2026-05-27 | vs SF | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-30 | vs SEA | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-31 | vs SEA | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-31 | vs SEA | 1 | Over |
| 2026-06-02 | vs LAD | 0 | Under |
| 2026-06-03 | vs LAD | 1 | Over |
Stats: MLB Stats API. Lines via The Odds API when available. See Ildemaro Vargas’s full profile and methodology.
MLB data last updated . Stats refresh each morning; odds and projections refresh through the day.