LF · MIL
Jackson Chourio — Home Runs
2026 home runs — game-by-game log, hit rates at common lines, recent form, and our matchup-adjusted projection.
Jackson Chourio (MIL) sits at 0.08 home runs per game through 24 games, and the last 10 have been hotter at 0.1. 8% of those games have finished over 0.5. Our projection of 0.16 comes in under the market line of 1.05.
Next: vs SF — their staff ranks 24 of 30 in runs allowed (1 = stingiest), a favorable matchup for hitters.
At a line of 0.5 (williamhill_us), Jackson Chourio went over in 2 of 24 2026 games.
Our projection 0.16 vs market line 1.05 — edge -0.89.
Hit rate at common lines
| Over | Cleared | Rate |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 2/24 | 8% |
Share of 2026 games Chourio finished above each line.
Recent form
Over 0.5 in 1 of the last 10 games.
Home / away splits
Per-game home runs at home vs. on the road this season — ballpark and travel effects show up here.
Projection is our own model — adjusted for the next opponent’s pitching and ballpark.
2026 Game-by-Game — Home Runs
| Date | Opp | Home Runs | vs Line |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-04 | vs STL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-06 | vs STL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-08 | vs NYY | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-09 | vs NYY | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-10 | vs NYY | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-12 | vs SD | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-13 | vs SD | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-14 | vs SD | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-15 | vs MIN | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-16 | vs MIN | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-17 | vs MIN | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-18 | vs CHC | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-19 | vs CHC | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-20 | vs CHC | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-22 | vs LAD | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-23 | vs LAD | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-24 | vs LAD | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-25 | vs STL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-26 | vs STL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-27 | vs STL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-30 | vs HOU | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-30 | vs HOU | 0 | Under |
| 2026-06-01 | vs SF | 0 | Under |
| 2026-06-02 | vs SF | 0 | Under |
Stats: MLB Stats API. Lines via The Odds API when available. See Jackson Chourio’s full profile and methodology.
MLB data last updated . Stats refresh each morning; odds and projections refresh through the day.