LF · MIL
Jackson Chourio — Runs
2026 runs — game-by-game log, hit rates at common lines, recent form, and our matchup-adjusted projection.
Over 24 games this season, Jackson Chourio (MIL) is averaging 0.63 runs per game, with recent form ahead of that at 1 over the last 10. The over on 0.5 has hit in 46% of games. Our model projects 0.76, a step above the market line of 0.5.
Next: vs SF — their staff ranks 24 of 30 in runs allowed (1 = stingiest), a favorable matchup for hitters.
At a line of 0.5 (draftkings), Jackson Chourio went over in 11 of 24 2026 games.
Our projection 0.76 vs market line 0.5 — edge +0.26.
Hit rate at common lines
| Over | Cleared | Rate |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 11/24 | 46% |
| 1.5 | 4/24 | 17% |
Share of 2026 games Chourio finished above each line.
Recent form
Over 0.5 in 7 of the last 10 games.
Home / away splits
Per-game runs at home vs. on the road this season — ballpark and travel effects show up here.
Projection is our own model — adjusted for the next opponent’s pitching and ballpark.
2026 Game-by-Game — Runs
| Date | Opp | Runs | vs Line |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-04 | vs STL | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-06 | vs STL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-08 | vs NYY | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-09 | vs NYY | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-10 | vs NYY | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-12 | vs SD | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-13 | vs SD | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-14 | vs SD | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-15 | vs MIN | 2 | Over |
| 2026-05-16 | vs MIN | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-17 | vs MIN | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-18 | vs CHC | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-19 | vs CHC | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-20 | vs CHC | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-22 | vs LAD | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-23 | vs LAD | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-24 | vs LAD | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-25 | vs STL | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-26 | vs STL | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-27 | vs STL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-30 | vs HOU | 2 | Over |
| 2026-05-30 | vs HOU | 0 | Under |
| 2026-06-01 | vs SF | 2 | Over |
| 2026-06-02 | vs SF | 2 | Over |
Stats: MLB Stats API. Lines via The Odds API when available. See Jackson Chourio’s full profile and methodology.
MLB data last updated . Stats refresh each morning; odds and projections refresh through the day.