EdgeTake

1B · MIL

Jake Bauers — Home Runs

2026 home runs — game-by-game log, hit rates at common lines, recent form, and our matchup-adjusted projection.

Games
51
Home Runs
10
Per Game
0.20
Projection
0.18
Current Line
0.5
Outlook

Jake Bauers (MIL) sits at 0.2 home runs per game through 51 games, and the last 10 have been hotter at 0.3. The over on 0.5 has hit in 20% of games. Our projection of 0.18 comes in under the market line of 1.27.

Next matchup

Next: vs SF — their staff ranks 24 of 30 in runs allowed (1 = stingiest), a favorable matchup for hitters.

Best price across books
Over 0.5 +500 Caesars

At a line of 0.5 (williamhill_us), Jake Bauers went over in 10 of 51 2026 games.

Our projection 0.18 vs market line 1.27 — edge -1.09.

Hit rate at common lines

OverClearedRate
0.510/5120%

Share of 2026 games Bauers finished above each line.

Recent form

Last 10 avg
0.30
Season avg
0.20

Over 0.5 in 3 of the last 10 games.

Home / away splits

Home (28)
0.29
Away (23)
0.09
Home edge
+0.20

Per-game home runs at home vs. on the road this season — ballpark and travel effects show up here.

Projection is our own model — adjusted for the next opponent’s pitching and ballpark.

2026 Game-by-Game — Home Runs

DateOppHome Runsvs Line
2026-03-26vs CWS1Over
2026-03-28vs CWS0Under
2026-03-29vs CWS0Under
2026-03-30vs TB0Under
2026-03-31vs TB1Over
2026-04-01vs TB0Under
2026-04-03vs KC0Under
2026-04-04vs KC0Under
2026-04-05vs KC0Under
2026-04-06vs BOS0Under
2026-04-08vs BOS0Under
2026-04-10vs WSH1Over
2026-04-11vs WSH0Under
2026-04-12vs WSH1Over
2026-04-14vs TOR1Over
2026-04-15vs TOR0Under
2026-04-16vs TOR0Under
2026-04-17vs MIA0Under
2026-04-18vs MIA0Under
2026-04-19vs MIA0Under
2026-04-21vs DET0Under
2026-04-22vs DET0Under
2026-04-24vs PIT0Under
2026-04-25vs PIT0Under
2026-04-26vs PIT0Under
2026-04-28vs AZ0Under
2026-04-29vs AZ0Under
2026-04-30vs AZ0Under
2026-05-01vs WSH0Under
2026-05-02vs WSH0Under
2026-05-03vs WSH0Under
2026-05-04vs STL0Under
2026-05-06vs STL0Under
2026-05-09vs NYY1Over
2026-05-12vs SD0Under
2026-05-13vs SD0Under
2026-05-15vs MIN0Under
2026-05-17vs MIN0Under
2026-05-18vs CHC1Over
2026-05-19vs CHC0Under
2026-05-20vs CHC0Under
2026-05-22vs LAD0Under
2026-05-23vs LAD0Under
2026-05-24vs LAD0Under
2026-05-26vs STL1Over
2026-05-27vs STL0Under
2026-05-30vs HOU0Under
2026-05-30vs HOU0Under
2026-05-31vs HOU1Over
2026-06-01vs SF0Under
2026-06-02vs SF1Over

Stats: MLB Stats API. Lines via The Odds API when available. See Jake Bauers’s full profile and methodology.

MLB data last updated . Stats refresh each morning; odds and projections refresh through the day.