EdgeTake

C · SF

Jesus Rodriguez — Home Runs

2026 home runs — game-by-game log, hit rates at common lines, recent form, and our matchup-adjusted projection.

Games
14
Home Runs
2
Per Game
0.14
Projection
0.1
Current Line
0.5
Outlook

Jesus Rodriguez (SF) sits at 0.14 home runs per game through 14 games, while recent form sits lower at 0.1 over the last 10. They've gone over 0.5 in 14% of those games. We project 0.1, short of the 1.5 market line.

Next matchup

Next: @ MIL — their staff ranks 3 of 30 in runs allowed (1 = stingiest), a tough matchup for hitters.

Best price across books
Over 0.5 +950 Caesars

At a line of 0.5 (williamhill_us), Jesus Rodriguez went over in 2 of 14 2026 games.

Our projection 0.1 vs market line 1.5 — edge -1.4.

Hit rate at common lines

OverClearedRate
0.52/1414%

Share of 2026 games Rodriguez finished above each line.

Recent form

Last 10 avg
0.10
Season avg
0.14

Over 0.5 in 1 of the last 10 games.

Home / away splits

Home (8)
0.13
Away (6)
0.17
Home edge
-0.04

Per-game home runs at home vs. on the road this season — ballpark and travel effects show up here.

Projection is our own model — adjusted for the next opponent’s pitching and ballpark.

2026 Game-by-Game — Home Runs

DateOppHome Runsvs Line
2026-05-05vs SD0Under
2026-05-06vs SD1Over
2026-05-06vs SD0Under
2026-05-09vs PIT0Under
2026-05-10vs PIT0Under
2026-05-12vs LAD0Under
2026-05-14vs LAD0Under
2026-05-17vs ATH0Under
2026-05-19vs AZ0Under
2026-05-20vs AZ0Under
2026-05-23vs CWS0Under
2026-05-24vs CWS0Under
2026-05-27vs AZ0Under
2026-05-31vs COL1Over

Stats: MLB Stats API. Lines via The Odds API when available. See Jesus Rodriguez’s full profile and methodology.

MLB data last updated . Stats refresh each morning; odds and projections refresh through the day.