1B · TB
Jonathan Aranda — Runs
2026 runs — game-by-game log, hit rates at common lines, recent form, and our matchup-adjusted projection.
Jonathan Aranda (TB) has averaged 0.59 runs per game across 58 games this season, with recent form ahead of that at 0.7 over the last 10. They've gone over 0.5 in 52% of those games. We project 0.52, ahead of the 0.5 market line.
Next: @ MIA — their staff ranks 19 of 30 in runs allowed (1 = stingiest), a average matchup for hitters.
At a line of 0.5 (draftkings), Jonathan Aranda went over in 30 of 58 2026 games.
Our projection 0.52 vs market line 0.5 — edge +0.02.
Hit rate at common lines
| Over | Cleared | Rate |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 30/58 | 52% |
| 1.5 | 4/58 | 7% |
Share of 2026 games Aranda finished above each line.
Recent form
Over 0.5 in 6 of the last 10 games.
Home / away splits
Per-game runs at home vs. on the road this season — ballpark and travel effects show up here.
Projection is our own model — adjusted for the next opponent’s pitching and ballpark.
2026 Game-by-Game — Runs
| Date | Opp | Runs | vs Line |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-26 | vs STL | 1 | Over |
| 2026-03-28 | vs STL | 1 | Over |
| 2026-03-29 | vs STL | 1 | Over |
| 2026-03-30 | vs MIL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-03-31 | vs MIL | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-01 | vs MIL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-03 | vs MIN | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-04 | vs MIN | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-05 | vs MIN | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-06 | vs CHC | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-07 | vs CHC | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-08 | vs CHC | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-10 | vs NYY | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-11 | vs NYY | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-12 | vs NYY | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-14 | vs CWS | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-15 | vs CWS | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-16 | vs CWS | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-17 | vs PIT | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-18 | vs PIT | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-19 | vs PIT | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-20 | vs CIN | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-21 | vs CIN | 2 | Over |
| 2026-04-22 | vs CIN | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-24 | vs MIN | 2 | Over |
| 2026-04-25 | vs MIN | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-26 | vs MIN | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-27 | vs CLE | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-28 | vs CLE | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-29 | vs CLE | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-01 | vs SF | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-02 | vs SF | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-03 | vs SF | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-04 | vs TOR | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-05 | vs TOR | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-06 | vs TOR | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-07 | vs BOS | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-08 | vs BOS | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-10 | vs BOS | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-11 | vs TOR | 2 | Over |
| 2026-05-12 | vs TOR | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-13 | vs TOR | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-15 | vs MIA | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-16 | vs MIA | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-17 | vs MIA | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-18 | vs BAL | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-19 | vs BAL | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-20 | vs BAL | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-22 | vs NYY | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-24 | vs NYY | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-25 | vs BAL | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-26 | vs BAL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-27 | vs BAL | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-29 | vs LAA | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-30 | vs LAA | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-31 | vs LAA | 2 | Over |
| 2026-06-01 | vs DET | 0 | Under |
| 2026-06-02 | vs DET | 0 | Under |
Stats: MLB Stats API. Lines via The Odds API when available. See Jonathan Aranda’s full profile and methodology.
MLB data last updated . Stats refresh each morning; odds and projections refresh through the day.