EdgeTake

1B · TB

Jonathan Aranda — Runs

2026 runs — game-by-game log, hit rates at common lines, recent form, and our matchup-adjusted projection.

Games
58
Runs
34
Per Game
0.59
Projection
0.52
Current Line
0.5
Outlook

Jonathan Aranda (TB) has averaged 0.59 runs per game across 58 games this season, with recent form ahead of that at 0.7 over the last 10. They've gone over 0.5 in 52% of those games. We project 0.52, ahead of the 0.5 market line.

Next matchup

Next: @ MIA — their staff ranks 19 of 30 in runs allowed (1 = stingiest), a average matchup for hitters.

Best price across books
Over 0.5 +105 BetMGMUnder 0.5 -140 BetMGM

At a line of 0.5 (draftkings), Jonathan Aranda went over in 30 of 58 2026 games.

Our projection 0.52 vs market line 0.5 — edge +0.02.

Hit rate at common lines

OverClearedRate
0.530/5852%
1.54/587%

Share of 2026 games Aranda finished above each line.

Recent form

Last 10 avg
0.70
Season avg
0.59

Over 0.5 in 6 of the last 10 games.

Home / away splits

Home (29)
0.62
Away (29)
0.55
Home edge
+0.07

Per-game runs at home vs. on the road this season — ballpark and travel effects show up here.

Projection is our own model — adjusted for the next opponent’s pitching and ballpark.

2026 Game-by-Game — Runs

DateOppRunsvs Line
2026-03-26vs STL1Over
2026-03-28vs STL1Over
2026-03-29vs STL1Over
2026-03-30vs MIL0Under
2026-03-31vs MIL1Over
2026-04-01vs MIL0Under
2026-04-03vs MIN0Under
2026-04-04vs MIN0Under
2026-04-05vs MIN0Under
2026-04-06vs CHC1Over
2026-04-07vs CHC0Under
2026-04-08vs CHC1Over
2026-04-10vs NYY1Over
2026-04-11vs NYY0Under
2026-04-12vs NYY0Under
2026-04-14vs CWS1Over
2026-04-15vs CWS1Over
2026-04-16vs CWS1Over
2026-04-17vs PIT0Under
2026-04-18vs PIT1Over
2026-04-19vs PIT0Under
2026-04-20vs CIN0Under
2026-04-21vs CIN2Over
2026-04-22vs CIN0Under
2026-04-24vs MIN2Over
2026-04-25vs MIN0Under
2026-04-26vs MIN1Over
2026-04-27vs CLE1Over
2026-04-28vs CLE0Under
2026-04-29vs CLE0Under
2026-05-01vs SF0Under
2026-05-02vs SF0Under
2026-05-03vs SF0Under
2026-05-04vs TOR1Over
2026-05-05vs TOR0Under
2026-05-06vs TOR1Over
2026-05-07vs BOS0Under
2026-05-08vs BOS0Under
2026-05-10vs BOS0Under
2026-05-11vs TOR2Over
2026-05-12vs TOR1Over
2026-05-13vs TOR1Over
2026-05-15vs MIA1Over
2026-05-16vs MIA0Under
2026-05-17vs MIA0Under
2026-05-18vs BAL1Over
2026-05-19vs BAL1Over
2026-05-20vs BAL1Over
2026-05-22vs NYY1Over
2026-05-24vs NYY0Under
2026-05-25vs BAL1Over
2026-05-26vs BAL0Under
2026-05-27vs BAL1Over
2026-05-29vs LAA1Over
2026-05-30vs LAA1Over
2026-05-31vs LAA2Over
2026-06-01vs DET0Under
2026-06-02vs DET0Under

Stats: MLB Stats API. Lines via The Odds API when available. See Jonathan Aranda’s full profile and methodology.

MLB data last updated . Stats refresh each morning; odds and projections refresh through the day.