SS · ATL
Jorge Mateo — Runs
2026 runs — game-by-game log, hit rates at common lines, recent form, and our matchup-adjusted projection.
Jorge Mateo (ATL) has averaged 0.72 runs per game across 29 games this season, trending up to 0.8 across the last 10. That 0.5 line has been cleared in 48% of games this season. Our projection of 0.5 lands right around the market line of 0.5.
Next: vs TOR — their staff ranks 10 of 30 in runs allowed (1 = stingiest), a tough matchup for hitters.
At a line of 0.5 (draftkings), Jorge Mateo went over in 14 of 29 2026 games.
Our projection 0.5 vs market line 0.5 — edge 0.
Hit rate at common lines
| Over | Cleared | Rate |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 14/29 | 48% |
| 1.5 | 6/29 | 21% |
Share of 2026 games Mateo finished above each line.
Recent form
Over 0.5 in 6 of the last 10 games.
Home / away splits
Per-game runs at home vs. on the road this season — ballpark and travel effects show up here.
Projection is our own model — adjusted for the next opponent’s pitching and ballpark.
2026 Game-by-Game — Runs
| Date | Opp | Runs | vs Line |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-29 | vs KC | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-03 | vs AZ | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-05 | vs AZ | 3 | Over |
| 2026-04-08 | vs LAA | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-11 | vs CLE | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-12 | vs CLE | 2 | Over |
| 2026-04-13 | vs MIA | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-18 | vs PHI | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-20 | vs WSH | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-23 | vs WSH | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-24 | vs PHI | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-26 | vs PHI | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-30 | vs DET | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-02 | vs COL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-03 | vs COL | 2 | Over |
| 2026-05-03 | vs COL | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-05 | vs SEA | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-06 | vs SEA | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-10 | vs LAD | 2 | Over |
| 2026-05-10 | vs LAD | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-17 | vs BOS | 2 | Over |
| 2026-05-18 | vs MIA | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-24 | vs WSH | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-27 | vs BOS | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-28 | vs BOS | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-29 | vs CIN | 2 | Over |
| 2026-05-30 | vs CIN | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-31 | vs CIN | 1 | Over |
| 2026-06-02 | vs TOR | 0 | Under |
Stats: MLB Stats API. Lines via The Odds API when available. See Jorge Mateo’s full profile and methodology.
MLB data last updated . Stats refresh each morning; odds and projections refresh through the day.