EdgeTake

SS · ATL

Jorge Mateo — Total Bases

2026 total bases — game-by-game log, hit rates at common lines, recent form, and our matchup-adjusted projection.

Games
29
Total Bases
41
Per Game
1.41
Projection
1.46
Current Line
0.5
Outlook

Over 29 games this season, Jorge Mateo (ATL) is averaging 1.41 total bases per game, trending up to 1.8 across the last 10. That 0.5 line has been cleared in 52% of games this season. Our model projects 1.46, a step above the market line of 0.77.

Next matchup

Next: vs TOR — their staff ranks 10 of 30 in runs allowed (1 = stingiest), a tough matchup for hitters.

Best price across books

Over 0.5 -135 at BetMGM — model 59% to hit, +2.2% EV.

Over 0.5 -135 BetMGMUnder 0.5 +109 Caesars

At a line of 0.5 (williamhill_us), Jorge Mateo went over in 15 of 29 2026 games.

Our projection 1.46 vs market line 0.77 — edge +0.69.

Hit rate at common lines

OverClearedRate
0.515/2952%
1.512/2941%
2.58/2928%
3.55/2917%

Share of 2026 games Mateo finished above each line.

Recent form

Last 10 avg
1.80
Season avg
1.41

Over 0.5 in 7 of the last 10 games.

Home / away splits

Home (10)
0.70
Away (19)
1.79
Home edge
-1.09

Per-game total bases at home vs. on the road this season — ballpark and travel effects show up here.

Projection is our own model — adjusted for the next opponent’s pitching and ballpark.

2026 Game-by-Game — Total Bases

DateOppTotal Basesvs Line
2026-03-29vs KC0Under
2026-04-03vs AZ4Over
2026-04-05vs AZ3Over
2026-04-08vs LAA0Under
2026-04-11vs CLE0Under
2026-04-12vs CLE4Over
2026-04-13vs MIA0Under
2026-04-18vs PHI0Under
2026-04-20vs WSH0Under
2026-04-23vs WSH0Under
2026-04-24vs PHI0Under
2026-04-26vs PHI1Over
2026-04-30vs DET0Under
2026-05-02vs COL0Under
2026-05-03vs COL3Over
2026-05-03vs COL5Over
2026-05-05vs SEA1Over
2026-05-06vs SEA0Under
2026-05-10vs LAD2Over
2026-05-10vs LAD2Over
2026-05-17vs BOS2Over
2026-05-18vs MIA0Under
2026-05-24vs WSH0Under
2026-05-27vs BOS2Over
2026-05-28vs BOS3Over
2026-05-29vs CIN1Over
2026-05-30vs CIN4Over
2026-05-31vs CIN4Over
2026-06-02vs TOR0Under

Stats: MLB Stats API. Lines via The Odds API when available. See Jorge Mateo’s full profile and methodology.

MLB data last updated . Stats refresh each morning; odds and projections refresh through the day.