EdgeTake

DH · AZ

Jose Fernandez — Runs

2026 runs — game-by-game log, hit rates at common lines, recent form, and our matchup-adjusted projection.

Games
50
Runs
22
Per Game
0.44
Projection
0.34
Current Line
0.5
Outlook

Over 50 games this season, Jose Fernandez (AZ) is averaging 0.44 runs per game, though the last 10 have cooled to 0.1. The over on 0.5 has hit in 34% of games. Our model projects 0.34, below the market line of 0.5.

Next matchup

Next: vs LAD — their staff ranks 1 of 30 in runs allowed (1 = stingiest), a tough matchup for hitters.

Best price across books
Over 0.5 +200 BetMGMUnder 0.5 -224 DraftKings

At a line of 0.5 (draftkings), Jose Fernandez went over in 17 of 50 2026 games.

Our projection 0.34 vs market line 0.5 — edge -0.16.

Hit rate at common lines

OverClearedRate
0.517/5034%
1.54/508%

Share of 2026 games Fernandez finished above each line.

Recent form

Last 10 avg
0.10
Season avg
0.44

Over 0.5 in 1 of the last 10 games.

Home / away splits

Home (25)
0.44
Away (25)
0.44
Home edge
+0.00

Per-game runs at home vs. on the road this season — ballpark and travel effects show up here.

Projection is our own model — adjusted for the next opponent’s pitching and ballpark.

2026 Game-by-Game — Runs

DateOppRunsvs Line
2026-04-01vs DET2Over
2026-04-01vs DET0Under
2026-04-03vs ATL0Under
2026-04-04vs ATL0Under
2026-04-05vs ATL0Under
2026-04-08vs NYM2Over
2026-04-09vs NYM1Over
2026-04-10vs PHI1Over
2026-04-11vs PHI0Under
2026-04-12vs PHI1Over
2026-04-13vs BAL1Over
2026-04-14vs BAL0Under
2026-04-15vs BAL1Over
2026-04-18vs TOR0Under
2026-04-19vs TOR1Over
2026-04-19vs TOR0Under
2026-04-22vs CWS1Over
2026-04-23vs CWS2Over
2026-04-23vs CWS0Under
2026-04-25vs SD1Over
2026-04-26vs SD3Over
2026-04-28vs MIL1Over
2026-04-29vs MIL0Under
2026-05-01vs CHC1Over
2026-05-02vs CHC0Under
2026-05-03vs CHC0Under
2026-05-07vs PIT0Under
2026-05-07vs PIT0Under
2026-05-09vs NYM0Under
2026-05-10vs NYM0Under
2026-05-12vs TEX0Under
2026-05-13vs TEX0Under
2026-05-14vs TEX0Under
2026-05-16vs COL1Over
2026-05-16vs COL0Under
2026-05-17vs COL0Under
2026-05-19vs SF1Over
2026-05-20vs SF0Under
2026-05-22vs COL0Under
2026-05-23vs COL0Under
2026-05-24vs COL0Under
2026-05-24vs COL0Under
2026-05-25vs SF1Over
2026-05-27vs SF0Under
2026-05-27vs SF0Under
2026-05-30vs SEA0Under
2026-05-31vs SEA0Under
2026-05-31vs SEA0Under
2026-06-02vs LAD0Under
2026-06-03vs LAD0Under

Stats: MLB Stats API. Lines via The Odds API when available. See Jose Fernandez’s full profile and methodology.

MLB data last updated . Stats refresh each morning; odds and projections refresh through the day.