LF · NYM
Juan Soto — Home Runs
2026 home runs — game-by-game log, hit rates at common lines, recent form, and our matchup-adjusted projection.
Over 44 games this season, Juan Soto (NYM) is averaging 0.3 home runs per game, and the last 10 have been hotter at 0.4. 27% of those games have finished over 0.5. Our model projects 0.23, below the market line of 1.05.
Next: @ SD — their staff ranks 11 of 30 in runs allowed (1 = stingiest), a average matchup for hitters.
At a line of 0.5 (williamhill_us), Juan Soto went over in 12 of 44 2026 games.
Our projection 0.23 vs market line 1.05 — edge -0.82.
Hit rate at common lines
| Over | Cleared | Rate |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 12/44 | 27% |
Share of 2026 games Soto finished above each line.
Recent form
Over 0.5 in 4 of the last 10 games.
Home / away splits
Per-game home runs at home vs. on the road this season — ballpark and travel effects show up here.
Projection is our own model — adjusted for the next opponent’s pitching and ballpark.
2026 Game-by-Game — Home Runs
| Date | Opp | Home Runs | vs Line |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-26 | vs PIT | 0 | Under |
| 2026-03-28 | vs PIT | 0 | Under |
| 2026-03-29 | vs PIT | 0 | Under |
| 2026-03-30 | vs STL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-03-31 | vs STL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-01 | vs STL | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-03 | vs SF | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-04 | vs SF | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-22 | vs MIN | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-23 | vs MIN | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-24 | vs COL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-25 | vs COL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-26 | vs COL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-28 | vs WSH | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-29 | vs WSH | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-30 | vs WSH | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-02 | vs LAA | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-03 | vs LAA | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-03 | vs LAA | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-04 | vs COL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-06 | vs COL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-07 | vs COL | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-09 | vs AZ | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-09 | vs AZ | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-10 | vs AZ | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-12 | vs DET | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-13 | vs DET | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-14 | vs DET | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-15 | vs NYY | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-16 | vs NYY | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-17 | vs NYY | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-18 | vs WSH | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-19 | vs WSH | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-20 | vs WSH | 2 | Over |
| 2026-05-21 | vs WSH | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-22 | vs MIA | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-23 | vs MIA | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-26 | vs CIN | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-27 | vs CIN | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-29 | vs MIA | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-30 | vs MIA | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-31 | vs MIA | 1 | Over |
| 2026-06-02 | vs SEA | 0 | Under |
| 2026-06-03 | vs SEA | 0 | Under |
Stats: MLB Stats API. Lines via The Odds API when available. See Juan Soto’s full profile and methodology.
MLB data last updated . Stats refresh each morning; odds and projections refresh through the day.