EdgeTake

CF · PHI

Justin Crawford — Home Runs

2026 home runs — game-by-game log, hit rates at common lines, recent form, and our matchup-adjusted projection.

Games
54
Home Runs
2
Per Game
0.04
Projection
0.1
Current Line
0.5
Outlook

Justin Crawford (PHI) sits at 0.04 home runs per game through 54 games, with the last 10 dipping to 0. 4% of those games have finished over 0.5. We project 0.1, short of the 0.81 market line.

Next matchup

Next: vs SD — their staff ranks 11 of 30 in runs allowed (1 = stingiest), a average matchup for hitters.

Best price across books
Over 0.5 +1100 Caesars

At a line of 0.5 (williamhill_us), Justin Crawford went over in 2 of 54 2026 games.

Our projection 0.1 vs market line 0.81 — edge -0.71.

Hit rate at common lines

OverClearedRate
0.52/544%

Share of 2026 games Crawford finished above each line.

Recent form

Last 10 avg
0.00
Season avg
0.04

Over 0.5 in 0 of the last 10 games.

Home / away splits

Home (29)
0.03
Away (25)
0.04
Home edge
-0.01

Per-game home runs at home vs. on the road this season — ballpark and travel effects show up here.

Projection is our own model — adjusted for the next opponent’s pitching and ballpark.

2026 Game-by-Game — Home Runs

DateOppHome Runsvs Line
2026-03-26vs TEX0Under
2026-03-28vs TEX0Under
2026-03-29vs TEX0Under
2026-03-31vs WSH0Under
2026-04-01vs WSH0Under
2026-04-03vs COL0Under
2026-04-05vs COL0Under
2026-04-05vs COL0Under
2026-04-07vs SF0Under
2026-04-08vs SF0Under
2026-04-08vs SF0Under
2026-04-10vs AZ0Under
2026-04-11vs AZ0Under
2026-04-12vs AZ0Under
2026-04-13vs CHC0Under
2026-04-14vs CHC0Under
2026-04-15vs CHC0Under
2026-04-17vs ATL0Under
2026-04-19vs ATL0Under
2026-04-20vs CHC0Under
2026-04-22vs CHC0Under
2026-04-23vs CHC0Under
2026-04-24vs ATL0Under
2026-04-25vs ATL0Under
2026-04-28vs SF0Under
2026-04-29vs SF0Under
2026-04-30vs SF0Under
2026-05-01vs MIA0Under
2026-05-03vs MIA0Under
2026-05-04vs MIA0Under
2026-05-05vs ATH0Under
2026-05-06vs ATH0Under
2026-05-07vs ATH0Under
2026-05-08vs COL1Over
2026-05-09vs COL0Under
2026-05-10vs COL0Under
2026-05-12vs BOS0Under
2026-05-13vs BOS1Over
2026-05-14vs BOS0Under
2026-05-15vs PIT0Under
2026-05-16vs PIT0Under
2026-05-17vs PIT0Under
2026-05-18vs CIN0Under
2026-05-19vs CIN0Under
2026-05-20vs CIN0Under
2026-05-22vs CLE0Under
2026-05-23vs CLE0Under
2026-05-24vs CLE0Under
2026-05-25vs SD0Under
2026-05-27vs SD0Under
2026-05-27vs SD0Under
2026-05-31vs LAD0Under
2026-05-31vs LAD0Under
2026-06-02vs SD0Under

Stats: MLB Stats API. Lines via The Odds API when available. See Justin Crawford’s full profile and methodology.

MLB data last updated . Stats refresh each morning; odds and projections refresh through the day.