EdgeTake

CF · PHI

Justin Crawford — Runs

2026 runs — game-by-game log, hit rates at common lines, recent form, and our matchup-adjusted projection.

Games
54
Runs
14
Per Game
0.26
Projection
0.42
Current Line
0.5
Outlook

Justin Crawford (PHI) has averaged 0.26 runs per game across 54 games this season, while recent form sits lower at 0.2 over the last 10. The over on 0.5 has hit in 24% of games. Our model projects 0.42, below the market line of 0.5.

Next matchup

Next: vs SD — their staff ranks 11 of 30 in runs allowed (1 = stingiest), a average matchup for hitters.

Best price across books
Over 0.5 +155 BetMGMUnder 0.5 -210 BetMGM

At a line of 0.5 (betmgm), Justin Crawford went over in 13 of 54 2026 games.

Our projection 0.42 vs market line 0.5 — edge -0.08.

Hit rate at common lines

OverClearedRate
0.513/5424%
1.51/542%

Share of 2026 games Crawford finished above each line.

Recent form

Last 10 avg
0.20
Season avg
0.26

Over 0.5 in 2 of the last 10 games.

Home / away splits

Home (29)
0.28
Away (25)
0.24
Home edge
+0.04

Per-game runs at home vs. on the road this season — ballpark and travel effects show up here.

Projection is our own model — adjusted for the next opponent’s pitching and ballpark.

2026 Game-by-Game — Runs

DateOppRunsvs Line
2026-03-26vs TEX1Over
2026-03-28vs TEX0Under
2026-03-29vs TEX1Over
2026-03-31vs WSH1Over
2026-04-01vs WSH0Under
2026-04-03vs COL0Under
2026-04-05vs COL0Under
2026-04-05vs COL0Under
2026-04-07vs SF2Over
2026-04-08vs SF0Under
2026-04-08vs SF0Under
2026-04-10vs AZ0Under
2026-04-11vs AZ1Over
2026-04-12vs AZ1Over
2026-04-13vs CHC0Under
2026-04-14vs CHC0Under
2026-04-15vs CHC0Under
2026-04-17vs ATL0Under
2026-04-19vs ATL0Under
2026-04-20vs CHC0Under
2026-04-22vs CHC0Under
2026-04-23vs CHC0Under
2026-04-24vs ATL0Under
2026-04-25vs ATL0Under
2026-04-28vs SF1Over
2026-04-29vs SF0Under
2026-04-30vs SF0Under
2026-05-01vs MIA0Under
2026-05-03vs MIA0Under
2026-05-04vs MIA0Under
2026-05-05vs ATH1Over
2026-05-06vs ATH0Under
2026-05-07vs ATH0Under
2026-05-08vs COL1Over
2026-05-09vs COL0Under
2026-05-10vs COL0Under
2026-05-12vs BOS0Under
2026-05-13vs BOS1Over
2026-05-14vs BOS0Under
2026-05-15vs PIT0Under
2026-05-16vs PIT1Over
2026-05-17vs PIT0Under
2026-05-18vs CIN0Under
2026-05-19vs CIN0Under
2026-05-20vs CIN0Under
2026-05-22vs CLE0Under
2026-05-23vs CLE0Under
2026-05-24vs CLE0Under
2026-05-25vs SD0Under
2026-05-27vs SD0Under
2026-05-27vs SD1Over
2026-05-31vs LAD1Over
2026-05-31vs LAD0Under
2026-06-02vs SD0Under

Stats: MLB Stats API. Lines via The Odds API when available. See Justin Crawford’s full profile and methodology.

MLB data last updated . Stats refresh each morning; odds and projections refresh through the day.