EdgeTake

2B · TEX

Justin Foscue — Home Runs

2026 home runs — game-by-game log, hit rates at common lines, recent form, and our matchup-adjusted projection.

Games
20
Home Runs
2
Per Game
0.10
Projection
0.11
Current Line
0.5
Outlook

Over 20 games this season, Justin Foscue (TEX) is averaging 0.1 home runs per game, though the last 10 have cooled to 0. That 0.5 line has been cleared in 10% of games this season. We project 0.11, short of the 0.94 market line.

Next matchup

Next: vs CLE — their staff ranks 7 of 30 in runs allowed (1 = stingiest), a tough matchup for hitters.

Best price across books
Over 0.5 +750 Caesars

At a line of 0.5 (williamhill_us), Justin Foscue went over in 2 of 20 2026 games.

Our projection 0.11 vs market line 0.94 — edge -0.83.

Hit rate at common lines

OverClearedRate
0.52/2010%

Share of 2026 games Foscue finished above each line.

Recent form

Last 10 avg
0.00
Season avg
0.10

Over 0.5 in 0 of the last 10 games.

Home / away splits

Home (9)
0.11
Away (11)
0.09
Home edge
+0.02

Per-game home runs at home vs. on the road this season — ballpark and travel effects show up here.

Projection is our own model — adjusted for the next opponent’s pitching and ballpark.

2026 Game-by-Game — Home Runs

DateOppHome Runsvs Line
2026-05-05vs NYY0Under
2026-05-07vs NYY0Under
2026-05-09vs CHC0Under
2026-05-09vs CHC1Over
2026-05-10vs CHC0Under
2026-05-12vs AZ0Under
2026-05-16vs HOU0Under
2026-05-16vs HOU0Under
2026-05-17vs HOU0Under
2026-05-19vs COL1Over
2026-05-20vs COL0Under
2026-05-20vs COL0Under
2026-05-23vs LAA0Under
2026-05-24vs LAA0Under
2026-05-24vs LAA0Under
2026-05-25vs HOU0Under
2026-05-27vs HOU0Under
2026-05-28vs HOU0Under
2026-05-29vs HOU0Under
2026-05-30vs KC0Under

Stats: MLB Stats API. Lines via The Odds API when available. See Justin Foscue’s full profile and methodology.

MLB data last updated . Stats refresh each morning; odds and projections refresh through the day.