EdgeTake

LF · AZ

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. — Home Runs

2026 home runs — game-by-game log, hit rates at common lines, recent form, and our matchup-adjusted projection.

Games
25
Home Runs
1
Per Game
0.04
Projection
0.09
Current Line
1.5
Outlook

Over 25 games this season, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (AZ) is averaging 0.04 home runs per game, trending up to 0.1 across the last 10. 0% of those games have finished over 1.5. We project 0.09, short of the 1.38 market line.

Next matchup

Next: vs LAD — their staff ranks 1 of 30 in runs allowed (1 = stingiest), a tough matchup for hitters.

Best price across books
Over 0.5 +625 Caesars

At a line of 1.5 (betonlineag), Lourdes Gurriel Jr. went over in 0 of 25 2026 games.

Our projection 0.09 vs market line 1.38 — edge -1.29.

Hit rate at common lines

OverClearedRate
0.51/254%

Share of 2026 games Jr. finished above each line.

Recent form

Last 10 avg
0.10
Season avg
0.04

Over 1.5 in 0 of the last 10 games.

Home / away splits

Home (14)
0.00
Away (11)
0.09
Home edge
-0.09

Per-game home runs at home vs. on the road this season — ballpark and travel effects show up here.

Projection is our own model — adjusted for the next opponent’s pitching and ballpark.

2026 Game-by-Game — Home Runs

DateOppHome Runsvs Line
2026-04-19vs TOR0Under
2026-04-19vs TOR0Under
2026-04-22vs CWS0Under
2026-04-23vs CWS0Under
2026-04-25vs SD0Under
2026-04-26vs SD0Under
2026-04-28vs MIL0Under
2026-04-29vs MIL0Under
2026-04-30vs MIL0Under
2026-05-02vs CHC0Under
2026-05-03vs CHC0Under
2026-05-06vs PIT0Under
2026-05-07vs PIT0Under
2026-05-09vs NYM0Under
2026-05-09vs NYM0Under
2026-05-12vs TEX0Under
2026-05-13vs TEX0Under
2026-05-14vs TEX0Under
2026-05-16vs COL0Under
2026-05-16vs COL0Under
2026-05-17vs COL1Under
2026-05-20vs SF0Under
2026-05-20vs SF0Under
2026-05-22vs COL0Under
2026-05-23vs COL0Under

Stats: MLB Stats API. Lines via The Odds API when available. See Lourdes Gurriel Jr.’s full profile and methodology.

MLB data last updated . Stats refresh each morning; odds and projections refresh through the day.