EdgeTake

LF · AZ

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. — Total Bases

2026 total bases — game-by-game log, hit rates at common lines, recent form, and our matchup-adjusted projection.

Games
25
Total Bases
28
Per Game
1.12
Projection
1.06
Current Line
1.5
Outlook

Over 25 games this season, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (AZ) is averaging 1.12 total bases per game, trending up to 1.4 across the last 10. That 1.5 line has been cleared in 36% of games this season. Our projection of 1.06 comes in under the market line of 1.65.

Next matchup

Next: vs LAD — their staff ranks 1 of 30 in runs allowed (1 = stingiest), a tough matchup for hitters.

Best price across books

Under 1.5 -165 at BetMGM — model 66% to hit, +5.4% EV.

Over 1.5 +125 BetMGMUnder 1.5 -165 BetMGM

At a line of 1.5 (betmgm), Lourdes Gurriel Jr. went over in 9 of 25 2026 games.

Our projection 1.06 vs market line 1.65 — edge -0.59.

Hit rate at common lines

OverClearedRate
0.514/2556%
1.59/2536%
2.53/2512%
3.51/254%

Share of 2026 games Jr. finished above each line.

Recent form

Last 10 avg
1.40
Season avg
1.12

Over 1.5 in 4 of the last 10 games.

Home / away splits

Home (14)
0.64
Away (11)
1.73
Home edge
-1.08

Per-game total bases at home vs. on the road this season — ballpark and travel effects show up here.

Projection is our own model — adjusted for the next opponent’s pitching and ballpark.

2026 Game-by-Game — Total Bases

DateOppTotal Basesvs Line
2026-04-19vs TOR0Under
2026-04-19vs TOR1Under
2026-04-22vs CWS0Under
2026-04-23vs CWS0Under
2026-04-25vs SD0Under
2026-04-26vs SD3Over
2026-04-28vs MIL0Under
2026-04-29vs MIL2Over
2026-04-30vs MIL2Over
2026-05-02vs CHC2Over
2026-05-03vs CHC2Over
2026-05-06vs PIT1Under
2026-05-07vs PIT1Under
2026-05-09vs NYM0Under
2026-05-09vs NYM0Under
2026-05-12vs TEX0Under
2026-05-13vs TEX0Under
2026-05-14vs TEX2Over
2026-05-16vs COL1Under
2026-05-16vs COL3Over
2026-05-17vs COL5Over
2026-05-20vs SF2Over
2026-05-20vs SF0Under
2026-05-22vs COL0Under
2026-05-23vs COL1Under

Stats: MLB Stats API. Lines via The Odds API when available. See Lourdes Gurriel Jr.’s full profile and methodology.

MLB data last updated . Stats refresh each morning; odds and projections refresh through the day.