EdgeTake

1B · WSH

Luis García Jr. — Home Runs

2026 home runs — game-by-game log, hit rates at common lines, recent form, and our matchup-adjusted projection.

Games
56
Home Runs
5
Per Game
0.09
Projection
0.12
Current Line
1.5
Outlook

Over 56 games this season, Luis García Jr. (WSH) is averaging 0.09 home runs per game, and the last 10 have been hotter at 0.2. They've gone over 1.5 in 2% of those games. We project 0.12, short of the 1.2 market line.

Next matchup

Next: @ AZ — their staff ranks 15 of 30 in runs allowed (1 = stingiest), a average matchup for hitters.

Best price across books
Over 0.5 +500 Caesars

At a line of 1.5 (betrivers), Luis García Jr. went over in 1 of 56 2026 games.

Our projection 0.12 vs market line 1.2 — edge -1.08.

Hit rate at common lines

OverClearedRate
0.54/567%

Share of 2026 games Jr. finished above each line.

Recent form

Last 10 avg
0.20
Season avg
0.09

Over 1.5 in 0 of the last 10 games.

Home / away splits

Home (28)
0.07
Away (28)
0.11
Home edge
-0.04

Per-game home runs at home vs. on the road this season — ballpark and travel effects show up here.

Projection is our own model — adjusted for the next opponent’s pitching and ballpark.

2026 Game-by-Game — Home Runs

DateOppHome Runsvs Line
2026-03-26vs CHC0Under
2026-03-28vs CHC0Under
2026-03-29vs CHC0Under
2026-03-30vs PHI0Under
2026-03-31vs PHI0Under
2026-04-01vs PHI0Under
2026-04-03vs LAD0Under
2026-04-04vs LAD0Under
2026-04-05vs LAD1Under
2026-04-06vs STL0Under
2026-04-07vs STL0Under
2026-04-08vs STL0Under
2026-04-10vs MIL0Under
2026-04-12vs MIL0Under
2026-04-13vs PIT0Under
2026-04-14vs PIT0Under
2026-04-15vs PIT0Under
2026-04-16vs PIT0Under
2026-04-17vs SF0Under
2026-04-18vs SF0Under
2026-04-19vs SF0Under
2026-04-20vs ATL0Under
2026-04-21vs ATL0Under
2026-04-22vs ATL0Under
2026-04-23vs ATL0Under
2026-04-24vs CWS0Under
2026-04-25vs CWS0Under
2026-04-26vs CWS0Under
2026-04-28vs NYM0Under
2026-04-30vs NYM0Under
2026-05-01vs MIL0Under
2026-05-02vs MIL0Under
2026-05-03vs MIL0Under
2026-05-08vs MIA0Under
2026-05-09vs MIA0Under
2026-05-10vs MIA0Under
2026-05-12vs CIN2Over
2026-05-13vs CIN0Under
2026-05-14vs CIN0Under
2026-05-15vs BAL0Under
2026-05-16vs BAL0Under
2026-05-17vs BAL0Under
2026-05-18vs NYM0Under
2026-05-19vs NYM0Under
2026-05-20vs NYM0Under
2026-05-21vs NYM0Under
2026-05-22vs ATL0Under
2026-05-23vs ATL0Under
2026-05-24vs ATL0Under
2026-05-25vs CLE1Under
2026-05-27vs CLE0Under
2026-05-29vs SD0Under
2026-05-30vs SD0Under
2026-05-31vs SD1Under
2026-06-01vs MIA0Under
2026-06-02vs MIA0Under

Stats: MLB Stats API. Lines via The Odds API when available. See Luis García Jr.’s full profile and methodology.

MLB data last updated . Stats refresh each morning; odds and projections refresh through the day.