3B · SF
Matt Chapman — Runs
2026 runs — game-by-game log, hit rates at common lines, recent form, and our matchup-adjusted projection.
Matt Chapman (SF) sits at 0.45 runs per game through 60 games, trending up to 0.6 across the last 10. 40% of those games have finished over 0.5. Our model projects 0.41, below the market line of 0.5.
Next: @ MIL — their staff ranks 3 of 30 in runs allowed (1 = stingiest), a tough matchup for hitters.
At a line of 0.5 (draftkings), Matt Chapman went over in 24 of 60 2026 games.
Our projection 0.41 vs market line 0.5 — edge -0.09.
Hit rate at common lines
| Over | Cleared | Rate |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 24/60 | 40% |
| 1.5 | 3/60 | 5% |
Share of 2026 games Chapman finished above each line.
Recent form
Over 0.5 in 5 of the last 10 games.
Home / away splits
Per-game runs at home vs. on the road this season — ballpark and travel effects show up here.
Projection is our own model — adjusted for the next opponent’s pitching and ballpark.
2026 Game-by-Game — Runs
| Date | Opp | Runs | vs Line |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-26 | vs NYY | 0 | Under |
| 2026-03-27 | vs NYY | 0 | Under |
| 2026-03-28 | vs NYY | 0 | Under |
| 2026-03-31 | vs SD | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-01 | vs SD | 2 | Over |
| 2026-04-01 | vs SD | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-03 | vs NYM | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-04 | vs NYM | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-05 | vs NYM | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-05 | vs NYM | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-07 | vs PHI | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-08 | vs PHI | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-08 | vs PHI | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-10 | vs BAL | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-11 | vs BAL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-12 | vs BAL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-14 | vs CIN | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-15 | vs CIN | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-16 | vs CIN | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-17 | vs WSH | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-18 | vs WSH | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-19 | vs WSH | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-22 | vs LAD | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-23 | vs LAD | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-23 | vs LAD | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-25 | vs MIA | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-25 | vs MIA | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-26 | vs MIA | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-28 | vs PHI | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-29 | vs PHI | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-30 | vs PHI | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-01 | vs TB | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-02 | vs TB | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-03 | vs TB | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-06 | vs SD | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-06 | vs SD | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-09 | vs PIT | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-10 | vs PIT | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-10 | vs PIT | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-12 | vs LAD | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-13 | vs LAD | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-14 | vs LAD | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-15 | vs LAD | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-16 | vs ATH | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-17 | vs ATH | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-17 | vs ATH | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-19 | vs AZ | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-20 | vs AZ | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-20 | vs AZ | 2 | Over |
| 2026-05-23 | vs CWS | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-23 | vs CWS | 2 | Over |
| 2026-05-24 | vs CWS | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-25 | vs AZ | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-27 | vs AZ | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-27 | vs AZ | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-30 | vs COL | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-31 | vs COL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-31 | vs COL | 1 | Over |
| 2026-06-01 | vs MIL | 1 | Over |
| 2026-06-02 | vs MIL | 0 | Under |
Stats: MLB Stats API. Lines via The Odds API when available. See Matt Chapman’s full profile and methodology.
MLB data last updated . Stats refresh each morning; odds and projections refresh through the day.