EdgeTake

3B · SF

Matt Chapman — Total Bases

2026 total bases — game-by-game log, hit rates at common lines, recent form, and our matchup-adjusted projection.

Games
60
Total Bases
75
Per Game
1.25
Projection
1.04
Current Line
0.5
Outlook

Over 60 games this season, Matt Chapman (SF) is averaging 1.25 total bases per game, trending up to 1.5 across the last 10. 57% of those games have finished over 0.5. Our projection of 1.04 comes in under the market line of 1.2.

Next matchup

Next: @ MIL — their staff ranks 3 of 30 in runs allowed (1 = stingiest), a tough matchup for hitters.

Best price across books

Under 0.5 +111 at Caesars — model 45% to hit, -4.5% EV.

Over 0.5 -148 CaesarsUnder 0.5 +111 Caesars

At a line of 0.5 (williamhill_us), Matt Chapman went over in 34 of 60 2026 games.

Our projection 1.04 vs market line 1.2 — edge -0.16.

Hit rate at common lines

OverClearedRate
0.534/6057%
1.522/6037%
2.512/6020%
3.56/6010%

Share of 2026 games Chapman finished above each line.

Recent form

Last 10 avg
1.50
Season avg
1.25

Over 0.5 in 6 of the last 10 games.

Home / away splits

Home (27)
1.22
Away (33)
1.27
Home edge
-0.05

Per-game total bases at home vs. on the road this season — ballpark and travel effects show up here.

Projection is our own model — adjusted for the next opponent’s pitching and ballpark.

2026 Game-by-Game — Total Bases

DateOppTotal Basesvs Line
2026-03-26vs NYY0Under
2026-03-27vs NYY0Under
2026-03-28vs NYY1Over
2026-03-31vs SD1Over
2026-04-01vs SD5Over
2026-04-01vs SD0Under
2026-04-03vs NYM3Over
2026-04-04vs NYM0Under
2026-04-05vs NYM1Over
2026-04-05vs NYM3Over
2026-04-07vs PHI4Over
2026-04-08vs PHI4Over
2026-04-08vs PHI1Over
2026-04-10vs BAL2Over
2026-04-11vs BAL1Over
2026-04-12vs BAL0Under
2026-04-14vs CIN0Under
2026-04-15vs CIN1Over
2026-04-16vs CIN2Over
2026-04-17vs WSH3Over
2026-04-18vs WSH2Over
2026-04-19vs WSH2Over
2026-04-22vs LAD0Under
2026-04-23vs LAD1Over
2026-04-23vs LAD0Under
2026-04-25vs MIA1Over
2026-04-25vs MIA2Over
2026-04-26vs MIA0Under
2026-04-28vs PHI0Under
2026-04-29vs PHI0Under
2026-04-30vs PHI3Over
2026-05-01vs TB0Under
2026-05-02vs TB0Under
2026-05-03vs TB0Under
2026-05-06vs SD0Under
2026-05-06vs SD0Under
2026-05-09vs PIT0Under
2026-05-10vs PIT1Over
2026-05-10vs PIT4Over
2026-05-12vs LAD0Under
2026-05-13vs LAD0Under
2026-05-14vs LAD1Over
2026-05-15vs LAD0Under
2026-05-16vs ATH0Under
2026-05-17vs ATH2Over
2026-05-17vs ATH4Over
2026-05-19vs AZ0Under
2026-05-20vs AZ1Over
2026-05-20vs AZ2Over
2026-05-23vs CWS2Over
2026-05-23vs CWS3Over
2026-05-24vs CWS2Over
2026-05-25vs AZ0Under
2026-05-27vs AZ0Under
2026-05-27vs AZ0Under
2026-05-30vs COL1Over
2026-05-31vs COL3Over
2026-05-31vs COL2Over
2026-06-01vs MIL4Over
2026-06-02vs MIL0Under

Stats: MLB Stats API. Lines via The Odds API when available. See Matt Chapman’s full profile and methodology.

MLB data last updated . Stats refresh each morning; odds and projections refresh through the day.