1B · CHC
Michael Busch — Runs
2026 runs — game-by-game log, hit rates at common lines, recent form, and our matchup-adjusted projection.
Michael Busch (CHC) sits at 0.43 runs per game through 60 games, and the last 10 have been hotter at 0.6. 37% of those games have finished over 0.5. Our projection of 0.42 comes in under the market line of 0.5.
Next: vs ATH — their staff ranks 22 of 30 in runs allowed (1 = stingiest), a favorable matchup for hitters.
At a line of 0.5 (draftkings), Michael Busch went over in 22 of 60 2026 games.
Our projection 0.42 vs market line 0.5 — edge -0.08.
Hit rate at common lines
| Over | Cleared | Rate |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 22/60 | 37% |
| 1.5 | 4/60 | 7% |
Share of 2026 games Busch finished above each line.
Recent form
Over 0.5 in 5 of the last 10 games.
Home / away splits
Per-game runs at home vs. on the road this season — ballpark and travel effects show up here.
Projection is our own model — adjusted for the next opponent’s pitching and ballpark.
2026 Game-by-Game — Runs
| Date | Opp | Runs | vs Line |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-26 | vs WSH | 2 | Over |
| 2026-03-28 | vs WSH | 1 | Over |
| 2026-03-29 | vs WSH | 0 | Under |
| 2026-03-30 | vs LAA | 1 | Over |
| 2026-03-31 | vs LAA | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-01 | vs LAA | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-03 | vs CLE | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-04 | vs CLE | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-05 | vs CLE | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-06 | vs TB | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-07 | vs TB | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-08 | vs TB | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-10 | vs PIT | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-11 | vs PIT | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-12 | vs PIT | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-14 | vs PHI | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-15 | vs PHI | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-17 | vs NYM | 2 | Over |
| 2026-04-18 | vs NYM | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-19 | vs NYM | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-20 | vs PHI | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-21 | vs PHI | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-22 | vs PHI | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-23 | vs PHI | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-25 | vs LAD | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-25 | vs LAD | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-26 | vs LAD | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-28 | vs SD | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-29 | vs SD | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-29 | vs SD | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-01 | vs AZ | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-02 | vs AZ | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-03 | vs AZ | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-04 | vs CIN | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-05 | vs CIN | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-06 | vs CIN | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-07 | vs CIN | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-09 | vs TEX | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-09 | vs TEX | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-10 | vs TEX | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-12 | vs ATL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-13 | vs ATL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-14 | vs ATL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-15 | vs CWS | 2 | Over |
| 2026-05-16 | vs CWS | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-17 | vs CWS | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-18 | vs MIL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-19 | vs MIL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-20 | vs MIL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-22 | vs HOU | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-23 | vs HOU | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-24 | vs HOU | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-25 | vs PIT | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-26 | vs PIT | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-27 | vs PIT | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-28 | vs PIT | 2 | Over |
| 2026-05-29 | vs STL | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-30 | vs STL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-31 | vs STL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-06-03 | vs ATH | 0 | Under |
Stats: MLB Stats API. Lines via The Odds API when available. See Michael Busch’s full profile and methodology.
MLB data last updated . Stats refresh each morning; odds and projections refresh through the day.