LF · STL
Nathan Church — Hits
2026 hits — game-by-game log, hit rates at common lines, recent form, and our matchup-adjusted projection.
Nathan Church (STL) sits at 0.84 hits per game through 43 games, and the last 10 hold near that at 0.9. The over on 0.5 has hit in 56% of games. Our projection of 0.82 comes in under the market line of 1.
Next: vs CIN — their staff ranks 27 of 30 in runs allowed (1 = stingiest), a favorable matchup for hitters.
Under 0.5 +164 at DraftKings — model 40% to hit, +5.0% EV.
At a line of 0.5 (draftkings), Nathan Church went over in 24 of 43 2026 games.
Our projection 0.82 vs market line 1 — edge -0.18.
Hit rate at common lines
| Over | Cleared | Rate |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 24/43 | 56% |
| 1.5 | 10/43 | 23% |
| 2.5 | 2/43 | 5% |
Share of 2026 games Church finished above each line.
Recent form
Over 0.5 in 6 of the last 10 games.
Home / away splits
Per-game hits at home vs. on the road this season — ballpark and travel effects show up here.
Projection is our own model — adjusted for the next opponent’s pitching and ballpark.
2026 Game-by-Game — Hits
| Date | Opp | Hits | vs Line |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-26 | vs TB | 3 | Over |
| 2026-03-28 | vs TB | 0 | Under |
| 2026-03-30 | vs NYM | 0 | Under |
| 2026-03-31 | vs NYM | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-01 | vs NYM | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-03 | vs DET | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-04 | vs DET | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-05 | vs DET | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-07 | vs WSH | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-08 | vs WSH | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-11 | vs BOS | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-13 | vs CLE | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-14 | vs CLE | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-15 | vs CLE | 3 | Over |
| 2026-04-18 | vs HOU | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-18 | vs HOU | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-19 | vs HOU | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-21 | vs MIA | 2 | Over |
| 2026-04-22 | vs MIA | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-25 | vs SEA | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-25 | vs SEA | 2 | Over |
| 2026-04-26 | vs SEA | 2 | Over |
| 2026-04-27 | vs PIT | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-28 | vs PIT | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-29 | vs PIT | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-30 | vs PIT | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-02 | vs LAD | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-02 | vs LAD | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-03 | vs LAD | 2 | Over |
| 2026-05-04 | vs MIL | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-06 | vs MIL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-08 | vs SD | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-09 | vs SD | 2 | Over |
| 2026-05-09 | vs SD | 2 | Over |
| 2026-05-10 | vs SD | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-13 | vs ATH | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-14 | vs ATH | 2 | Over |
| 2026-05-14 | vs ATH | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-16 | vs KC | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-16 | vs KC | 2 | Over |
| 2026-05-17 | vs KC | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-19 | vs PIT | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-20 | vs PIT | 1 | Over |
Stats: MLB Stats API. Lines via The Odds API when available. See Nathan Church’s full profile and methodology.
MLB data last updated . Stats refresh each morning; odds and projections refresh through the day.