LF · STL
Nathan Church — Runs
2026 runs — game-by-game log, hit rates at common lines, recent form, and our matchup-adjusted projection.
Nathan Church (STL) has averaged 0.4 runs per game across 43 games this season, while recent form sits lower at 0.2 over the last 10. They've gone over 0.5 in 35% of those games. Our model projects 0.4, below the market line of 0.5.
Next: vs CIN — their staff ranks 27 of 30 in runs allowed (1 = stingiest), a favorable matchup for hitters.
At a line of 0.5 (draftkings), Nathan Church went over in 15 of 43 2026 games.
Our projection 0.4 vs market line 0.5 — edge -0.1.
Hit rate at common lines
| Over | Cleared | Rate |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 15/43 | 35% |
| 1.5 | 2/43 | 5% |
Share of 2026 games Church finished above each line.
Recent form
Over 0.5 in 2 of the last 10 games.
Home / away splits
Per-game runs at home vs. on the road this season — ballpark and travel effects show up here.
Projection is our own model — adjusted for the next opponent’s pitching and ballpark.
2026 Game-by-Game — Runs
| Date | Opp | Runs | vs Line |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-26 | vs TB | 1 | Over |
| 2026-03-28 | vs TB | 1 | Over |
| 2026-03-30 | vs NYM | 0 | Under |
| 2026-03-31 | vs NYM | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-01 | vs NYM | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-03 | vs DET | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-04 | vs DET | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-05 | vs DET | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-07 | vs WSH | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-08 | vs WSH | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-11 | vs BOS | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-13 | vs CLE | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-14 | vs CLE | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-15 | vs CLE | 2 | Over |
| 2026-04-18 | vs HOU | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-18 | vs HOU | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-19 | vs HOU | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-21 | vs MIA | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-22 | vs MIA | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-25 | vs SEA | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-25 | vs SEA | 2 | Over |
| 2026-04-26 | vs SEA | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-27 | vs PIT | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-28 | vs PIT | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-29 | vs PIT | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-30 | vs PIT | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-02 | vs LAD | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-02 | vs LAD | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-03 | vs LAD | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-04 | vs MIL | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-06 | vs MIL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-08 | vs SD | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-09 | vs SD | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-09 | vs SD | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-10 | vs SD | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-13 | vs ATH | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-14 | vs ATH | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-14 | vs ATH | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-16 | vs KC | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-16 | vs KC | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-17 | vs KC | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-19 | vs PIT | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-20 | vs PIT | 0 | Under |
Stats: MLB Stats API. Lines via The Odds API when available. See Nathan Church’s full profile and methodology.
MLB data last updated . Stats refresh each morning; odds and projections refresh through the day.