LF · STL
Nathan Church — Total Bases
2026 total bases — game-by-game log, hit rates at common lines, recent form, and our matchup-adjusted projection.
Nathan Church (STL) has averaged 1.33 total bases per game across 43 games this season, while recent form sits lower at 1.1 over the last 10. 33% of those games have finished over 1.5. Our model projects 1.22, below the market line of 1.5.
Next: vs CIN — their staff ranks 27 of 30 in runs allowed (1 = stingiest), a favorable matchup for hitters.
Under 1.5 -190 at Caesars — model 65% to hit, -0.3% EV.
At a line of 1.5 (draftkings), Nathan Church went over in 14 of 43 2026 games.
Our projection 1.22 vs market line 1.5 — edge -0.28.
Hit rate at common lines
| Over | Cleared | Rate |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 24/43 | 56% |
| 1.5 | 14/43 | 33% |
| 2.5 | 8/43 | 19% |
| 3.5 | 5/43 | 12% |
Share of 2026 games Church finished above each line.
Recent form
Over 1.5 in 3 of the last 10 games.
Home / away splits
Per-game total bases at home vs. on the road this season — ballpark and travel effects show up here.
Projection is our own model — adjusted for the next opponent’s pitching and ballpark.
2026 Game-by-Game — Total Bases
| Date | Opp | Total Bases | vs Line |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-26 | vs TB | 3 | Over |
| 2026-03-28 | vs TB | 0 | Under |
| 2026-03-30 | vs NYM | 0 | Under |
| 2026-03-31 | vs NYM | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-01 | vs NYM | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-03 | vs DET | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-04 | vs DET | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-05 | vs DET | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-07 | vs WSH | 4 | Over |
| 2026-04-08 | vs WSH | 1 | Under |
| 2026-04-11 | vs BOS | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-13 | vs CLE | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-14 | vs CLE | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-15 | vs CLE | 4 | Over |
| 2026-04-18 | vs HOU | 1 | Under |
| 2026-04-18 | vs HOU | 1 | Under |
| 2026-04-19 | vs HOU | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-21 | vs MIA | 5 | Over |
| 2026-04-22 | vs MIA | 1 | Under |
| 2026-04-25 | vs SEA | 1 | Under |
| 2026-04-25 | vs SEA | 8 | Over |
| 2026-04-26 | vs SEA | 5 | Over |
| 2026-04-27 | vs PIT | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-28 | vs PIT | 1 | Under |
| 2026-04-29 | vs PIT | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-30 | vs PIT | 2 | Over |
| 2026-05-02 | vs LAD | 1 | Under |
| 2026-05-02 | vs LAD | 2 | Over |
| 2026-05-03 | vs LAD | 2 | Over |
| 2026-05-04 | vs MIL | 2 | Over |
| 2026-05-06 | vs MIL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-08 | vs SD | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-09 | vs SD | 2 | Over |
| 2026-05-09 | vs SD | 3 | Over |
| 2026-05-10 | vs SD | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-13 | vs ATH | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-14 | vs ATH | 2 | Over |
| 2026-05-14 | vs ATH | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-16 | vs KC | 1 | Under |
| 2026-05-16 | vs KC | 3 | Over |
| 2026-05-17 | vs KC | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-19 | vs PIT | 1 | Under |
| 2026-05-20 | vs PIT | 1 | Under |
Stats: MLB Stats API. Lines via The Odds API when available. See Nathan Church’s full profile and methodology.
MLB data last updated . Stats refresh each morning; odds and projections refresh through the day.