RF · TOR
Nathan Lukes — Runs
2026 runs — game-by-game log, hit rates at common lines, recent form, and our matchup-adjusted projection.
Nathan Lukes (TOR) sits at 0.31 runs per game through 26 games, trending up to 0.5 across the last 10. They've gone over 0.5 in 27% of those games. Our projection of 0.49 lands right around the market line of 0.5.
Next: @ ATL — their staff ranks 2 of 30 in runs allowed (1 = stingiest), a tough matchup for hitters.
At a line of 0.5 (draftkings), Nathan Lukes went over in 7 of 26 2026 games.
Our projection 0.49 vs market line 0.5 — edge -0.01.
Hit rate at common lines
| Over | Cleared | Rate |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 7/26 | 27% |
| 1.5 | 1/26 | 4% |
Share of 2026 games Lukes finished above each line.
Recent form
Over 0.5 in 4 of the last 10 games.
Home / away splits
Per-game runs at home vs. on the road this season — ballpark and travel effects show up here.
Projection is our own model — adjusted for the next opponent’s pitching and ballpark.
2026 Game-by-Game — Runs
| Date | Opp | Runs | vs Line |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-27 | vs ATH | 0 | Under |
| 2026-03-30 | vs COL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-03-31 | vs COL | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-01 | vs COL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-04 | vs CWS | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-05 | vs CWS | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-07 | vs LAD | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-08 | vs LAD | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-11 | vs MIN | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-12 | vs MIN | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-14 | vs MIL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-15 | vs MIL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-18 | vs AZ | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-19 | vs AZ | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-19 | vs AZ | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-21 | vs LAA | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-22 | vs LAA | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-22 | vs LAA | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-24 | vs CLE | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-25 | vs MIA | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-27 | vs MIA | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-28 | vs BAL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-29 | vs BAL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-30 | vs BAL | 2 | Over |
| 2026-05-31 | vs BAL | 1 | Over |
| 2026-06-02 | vs ATL | 1 | Over |
Stats: MLB Stats API. Lines via The Odds API when available. See Nathan Lukes’s full profile and methodology.
MLB data last updated . Stats refresh each morning; odds and projections refresh through the day.