DH · CIN
Nathaniel Lowe — Runs
2026 runs — game-by-game log, hit rates at common lines, recent form, and our matchup-adjusted projection.
Nathaniel Lowe (CIN) sits at 0.38 runs per game through 42 games, and the last 10 have been hotter at 0.6. That 0.5 line has been cleared in 31% of games this season. Our model projects 0.45, below the market line of 0.5.
Next: @ STL — their staff ranks 18 of 30 in runs allowed (1 = stingiest), a average matchup for hitters.
At a line of 0.5 (draftkings), Nathaniel Lowe went over in 13 of 42 2026 games.
Our projection 0.45 vs market line 0.5 — edge -0.05.
Hit rate at common lines
| Over | Cleared | Rate |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 13/42 | 31% |
| 1.5 | 2/42 | 5% |
Share of 2026 games Lowe finished above each line.
Recent form
Over 0.5 in 6 of the last 10 games.
Home / away splits
Per-game runs at home vs. on the road this season — ballpark and travel effects show up here.
Projection is our own model — adjusted for the next opponent’s pitching and ballpark.
2026 Game-by-Game — Runs
| Date | Opp | Runs | vs Line |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-28 | vs BOS | 0 | Under |
| 2026-03-31 | vs PIT | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-01 | vs PIT | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-04 | vs TEX | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-07 | vs MIA | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-08 | vs MIA | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-09 | vs MIA | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-11 | vs LAA | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-12 | vs LAA | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-18 | vs MIN | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-18 | vs MIN | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-22 | vs TB | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-24 | vs DET | 3 | Over |
| 2026-04-25 | vs DET | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-26 | vs DET | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-28 | vs COL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-29 | vs COL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-30 | vs COL | 2 | Over |
| 2026-05-01 | vs PIT | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-02 | vs PIT | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-03 | vs PIT | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-04 | vs CHC | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-05 | vs CHC | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-06 | vs CHC | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-07 | vs CHC | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-08 | vs HOU | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-09 | vs HOU | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-12 | vs WSH | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-13 | vs WSH | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-15 | vs CLE | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-16 | vs CLE | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-17 | vs CLE | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-18 | vs PHI | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-20 | vs PHI | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-22 | vs STL | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-23 | vs STL | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-25 | vs NYM | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-27 | vs NYM | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-29 | vs ATL | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-31 | vs ATL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-06-01 | vs KC | 0 | Under |
| 2026-06-02 | vs KC | 0 | Under |
Stats: MLB Stats API. Lines via The Odds API when available. See Nathaniel Lowe’s full profile and methodology.
MLB data last updated . Stats refresh each morning; odds and projections refresh through the day.