EdgeTake

DH · CIN

Nathaniel Lowe — Total Bases

2026 total bases — game-by-game log, hit rates at common lines, recent form, and our matchup-adjusted projection.

Games
42
Total Bases
69
Per Game
1.64
Projection
1.73
Current Line
1.5
Outlook

Nathaniel Lowe (CIN) sits at 1.64 total bases per game through 42 games, trending up to 2.1 across the last 10. The over on 1.5 has hit in 38% of games. Our model projects 1.73, a step above the market line of 1.19.

Next matchup

Next: @ STL — their staff ranks 18 of 30 in runs allowed (1 = stingiest), a average matchup for hitters.

Best price across books

Over 1.5 +148 at BetRivers — model 40% to hit, -0.4% EV.

Over 1.5 +148 BetRiversUnder 1.5 -190 Caesars

At a line of 1.5 (williamhill_us), Nathaniel Lowe went over in 16 of 42 2026 games.

Our projection 1.73 vs market line 1.19 — edge +0.54.

Hit rate at common lines

OverClearedRate
0.524/4257%
1.516/4238%
2.512/4229%
3.59/4221%

Share of 2026 games Lowe finished above each line.

Recent form

Last 10 avg
2.10
Season avg
1.64

Over 1.5 in 5 of the last 10 games.

Home / away splits

Home (21)
2.00
Away (21)
1.29
Home edge
+0.71

Per-game total bases at home vs. on the road this season — ballpark and travel effects show up here.

Projection is our own model — adjusted for the next opponent’s pitching and ballpark.

2026 Game-by-Game — Total Bases

DateOppTotal Basesvs Line
2026-03-28vs BOS0Under
2026-03-31vs PIT0Under
2026-04-01vs PIT2Over
2026-04-04vs TEX1Under
2026-04-07vs MIA1Under
2026-04-08vs MIA0Under
2026-04-09vs MIA0Under
2026-04-11vs LAA2Over
2026-04-12vs LAA0Under
2026-04-18vs MIN0Under
2026-04-18vs MIN3Over
2026-04-22vs TB1Under
2026-04-24vs DET8Over
2026-04-25vs DET4Over
2026-04-26vs DET4Over
2026-04-28vs COL2Over
2026-04-29vs COL0Under
2026-04-30vs COL6Over
2026-05-01vs PIT0Under
2026-05-02vs PIT3Over
2026-05-03vs PIT0Under
2026-05-04vs CHC0Under
2026-05-05vs CHC5Over
2026-05-06vs CHC1Under
2026-05-07vs CHC0Under
2026-05-08vs HOU1Under
2026-05-09vs HOU0Under
2026-05-12vs WSH0Under
2026-05-13vs WSH0Under
2026-05-15vs CLE1Under
2026-05-16vs CLE0Under
2026-05-17vs CLE3Over
2026-05-18vs PHI1Under
2026-05-20vs PHI4Over
2026-05-22vs STL4Over
2026-05-23vs STL5Over
2026-05-25vs NYM2Over
2026-05-27vs NYM1Under
2026-05-29vs ATL4Over
2026-05-31vs ATL0Under
2026-06-01vs KC0Under
2026-06-02vs KC0Under

Stats: MLB Stats API. Lines via The Odds API when available. See Nathaniel Lowe’s full profile and methodology.

MLB data last updated . Stats refresh each morning; odds and projections refresh through the day.