EdgeTake

OF · STL

Nelson Velázquez — Home Runs

2026 home runs — game-by-game log, hit rates at common lines, recent form, and our matchup-adjusted projection.

Games
4
Home Runs
1
Per Game
0.25
Projection
Current Line
0.5
Outlook

Nelson Velázquez (STL) sits at 0.25 home runs per game through 4 games, and the last 10 hold near that at 0.25. That 0.5 line has been cleared in 25% of games this season.

Next matchup

Next: vs CIN — their staff ranks 27 of 30 in runs allowed (1 = stingiest), a favorable matchup for hitters.

Best price across books
Over 0.5 +500 Caesars

At a line of 0.5 (williamhill_us), Nelson Velázquez went over in 1 of 4 2026 games.

Hit rate at common lines

OverClearedRate
0.51/425%

Share of 2026 games Velázquez finished above each line.

Recent form

Last 4 avg
0.25
Season avg
0.25

Over 0.5 in 1 of the last 4 games.

2026 Game-by-Game — Home Runs

DateOppHome Runsvs Line
2026-05-29vs CHC1Over
2026-05-31vs CHC0Under
2026-06-01vs TEX0Under
2026-06-02vs TEX0Under

Stats: MLB Stats API. Lines via The Odds API when available. See Nelson Velázquez’s full profile and methodology.

MLB data last updated . Stats refresh each morning; odds and projections refresh through the day.