RF · SD
Nick Castellanos — Home Runs
2026 home runs — game-by-game log, hit rates at common lines, recent form, and our matchup-adjusted projection.
Over 39 games this season, Nick Castellanos (SD) is averaging 0.1 home runs per game, and the last 10 hold near that at 0.1. 10% of those games have finished over 0.5. We project 0.14, short of the 1.1 market line.
Next: @ PHI — their staff ranks 16 of 30 in runs allowed (1 = stingiest), a average matchup for hitters.
At a line of 0.5 (williamhill_us), Nick Castellanos went over in 4 of 39 2026 games.
Our projection 0.14 vs market line 1.1 — edge -0.96.
Hit rate at common lines
| Over | Cleared | Rate |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 4/39 | 10% |
Share of 2026 games Castellanos finished above each line.
Recent form
Over 0.5 in 1 of the last 10 games.
Home / away splits
Per-game home runs at home vs. on the road this season — ballpark and travel effects show up here.
Projection is our own model — adjusted for the next opponent’s pitching and ballpark.
2026 Game-by-Game — Home Runs
| Date | Opp | Home Runs | vs Line |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-26 | vs DET | 0 | Under |
| 2026-03-28 | vs DET | 0 | Under |
| 2026-03-29 | vs DET | 0 | Under |
| 2026-03-31 | vs SF | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-01 | vs SF | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-04 | vs BOS | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-05 | vs BOS | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-06 | vs PIT | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-08 | vs PIT | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-10 | vs COL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-12 | vs COL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-12 | vs COL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-16 | vs SEA | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-18 | vs LAA | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-22 | vs COL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-23 | vs COL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-28 | vs CHC | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-29 | vs CHC | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-29 | vs CHC | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-02 | vs CWS | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-03 | vs CWS | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-06 | vs SF | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-06 | vs SF | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-08 | vs STL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-10 | vs STL | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-12 | vs MIL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-13 | vs MIL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-14 | vs MIL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-16 | vs SEA | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-19 | vs LAD | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-20 | vs LAD | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-21 | vs LAD | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-23 | vs ATH | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-24 | vs ATH | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-24 | vs ATH | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-25 | vs PHI | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-27 | vs PHI | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-27 | vs PHI | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-31 | vs WSH | 0 | Under |
Stats: MLB Stats API. Lines via The Odds API when available. See Nick Castellanos’s full profile and methodology.
MLB data last updated . Stats refresh each morning; odds and projections refresh through the day.