RF · SD
Nick Castellanos — Runs
2026 runs — game-by-game log, hit rates at common lines, recent form, and our matchup-adjusted projection.
Over 39 games this season, Nick Castellanos (SD) is averaging 0.23 runs per game, with the last 10 dipping to 0.2. The over on 0.5 has hit in 21% of games. Our projection of 0.48 comes in under the market line of 0.5.
Next: @ PHI — their staff ranks 16 of 30 in runs allowed (1 = stingiest), a average matchup for hitters.
At a line of 0.5 (draftkings), Nick Castellanos went over in 8 of 39 2026 games.
Our projection 0.48 vs market line 0.5 — edge -0.02.
Hit rate at common lines
| Over | Cleared | Rate |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 8/39 | 21% |
| 1.5 | 1/39 | 3% |
Share of 2026 games Castellanos finished above each line.
Recent form
Over 0.5 in 2 of the last 10 games.
Home / away splits
Per-game runs at home vs. on the road this season — ballpark and travel effects show up here.
Projection is our own model — adjusted for the next opponent’s pitching and ballpark.
2026 Game-by-Game — Runs
| Date | Opp | Runs | vs Line |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-26 | vs DET | 0 | Under |
| 2026-03-28 | vs DET | 0 | Under |
| 2026-03-29 | vs DET | 0 | Under |
| 2026-03-31 | vs SF | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-01 | vs SF | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-04 | vs BOS | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-05 | vs BOS | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-06 | vs PIT | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-08 | vs PIT | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-10 | vs COL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-12 | vs COL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-12 | vs COL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-16 | vs SEA | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-18 | vs LAA | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-22 | vs COL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-23 | vs COL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-28 | vs CHC | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-29 | vs CHC | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-29 | vs CHC | 2 | Over |
| 2026-05-02 | vs CWS | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-03 | vs CWS | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-06 | vs SF | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-06 | vs SF | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-08 | vs STL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-10 | vs STL | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-12 | vs MIL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-13 | vs MIL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-14 | vs MIL | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-16 | vs SEA | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-19 | vs LAD | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-20 | vs LAD | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-21 | vs LAD | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-23 | vs ATH | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-24 | vs ATH | 1 | Over |
| 2026-05-24 | vs ATH | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-25 | vs PHI | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-27 | vs PHI | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-27 | vs PHI | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-31 | vs WSH | 0 | Under |
Stats: MLB Stats API. Lines via The Odds API when available. See Nick Castellanos’s full profile and methodology.
MLB data last updated . Stats refresh each morning; odds and projections refresh through the day.