EdgeTake

RF · SD

Nick Castellanos — Total Bases

2026 total bases — game-by-game log, hit rates at common lines, recent form, and our matchup-adjusted projection.

Games
39
Total Bases
39
Per Game
1.00
Projection
1.54
Current Line
1.5
Outlook

Over 39 games this season, Nick Castellanos (SD) is averaging 1 total bases per game, while recent form sits lower at 0.7 over the last 10. The over on 1.5 has hit in 26% of games. We project 1.54, ahead of the 1.05 market line.

Next matchup

Next: @ PHI — their staff ranks 16 of 30 in runs allowed (1 = stingiest), a average matchup for hitters.

Best price across books

Under 1.5 -159 at DraftKings — model 60% to hit, -2.2% EV.

Over 1.5 +130 BetMGMUnder 1.5 -159 DraftKings

At a line of 1.5 (draftkings), Nick Castellanos went over in 10 of 39 2026 games.

Our projection 1.54 vs market line 1.05 — edge +0.49.

Hit rate at common lines

OverClearedRate
0.519/3949%
1.510/3926%
2.56/3915%
3.54/3910%

Share of 2026 games Castellanos finished above each line.

Recent form

Last 10 avg
0.70
Season avg
1.00

Over 1.5 in 1 of the last 10 games.

Home / away splits

Home (25)
0.84
Away (14)
1.29
Home edge
-0.45

Per-game total bases at home vs. on the road this season — ballpark and travel effects show up here.

Projection is our own model — adjusted for the next opponent’s pitching and ballpark.

2026 Game-by-Game — Total Bases

DateOppTotal Basesvs Line
2026-03-26vs DET0Under
2026-03-28vs DET0Under
2026-03-29vs DET1Under
2026-03-31vs SF0Under
2026-04-01vs SF2Over
2026-04-04vs BOS0Under
2026-04-05vs BOS1Under
2026-04-06vs PIT3Over
2026-04-08vs PIT2Over
2026-04-10vs COL0Under
2026-04-12vs COL1Under
2026-04-12vs COL0Under
2026-04-16vs SEA0Under
2026-04-18vs LAA0Under
2026-04-22vs COL0Under
2026-04-23vs COL0Under
2026-04-28vs CHC1Under
2026-04-29vs CHC0Under
2026-04-29vs CHC4Over
2026-05-02vs CWS0Under
2026-05-03vs CWS2Over
2026-05-06vs SF1Under
2026-05-06vs SF2Over
2026-05-08vs STL0Under
2026-05-10vs STL4Over
2026-05-12vs MIL1Under
2026-05-13vs MIL0Under
2026-05-14vs MIL3Over
2026-05-16vs SEA4Over
2026-05-19vs LAD0Under
2026-05-20vs LAD0Under
2026-05-21vs LAD1Under
2026-05-23vs ATH4Over
2026-05-24vs ATH0Under
2026-05-24vs ATH0Under
2026-05-25vs PHI0Under
2026-05-27vs PHI0Under
2026-05-27vs PHI1Under
2026-05-31vs WSH1Under

Stats: MLB Stats API. Lines via The Odds API when available. See Nick Castellanos’s full profile and methodology.

MLB data last updated . Stats refresh each morning; odds and projections refresh through the day.